Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid Predictions: Citizens to Dominate at Home

Champions League favourites Manchester City take on Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night, and Pep Guardiola’s side are widely fancied to make light work of the current Spanish champions over two legs.

Man City have been highlighting their dominance on a domestic level for several years, but they have fallen short in the Champions League. Last season’s final saw them narrowly lose out to Chelsea and there is a general feeling that the team could go one better this season.

Despite the optimism around City at the moment, Atletico Madrid represent a significant test because of the way they approach the game. They started this season conceding a heap of goals; which is  uncharacteristic of a Diego Simeone team. However, Atleti showcased their steel in the last round against Manchester United, reminding everyone that they are still more than capable of shutting out the opposition on big European nights such as these.

Atletico are expected to approach the game in an extremely cautious manner and it will be left to City to try and break down the resolute defence of the Spanish side. This is the type of game where City could really benefit from having a focal point upfront, but failure to secure one in the summer transfer window means that Pep will have to conjure up something special in terms of team selection like he has many times already this season.

Atletico will be more than happy to allow City to dominate possession and I don’t envisage the away side hunting for the ball deep into the opposition half. This approach from the visitors should see City knocking on the door to find an open for the vast majority of the game. 

Surprisingly, Man City’s opponents are only averaging around 7 goal kicks per match in the Champions League this season, but Atletico are averaging exactly 9.5 in their 8 games so far. The Spanish side had 10 goal kicks in their match at Old Trafford, and 13 on their trip to Anfield in the group stages. Atleti are back on English soil and I expect them to invite the sort of pressure that leads to the home side forcing a number of goal kicks.

In Man City’s last 10 matches in all competitions, their opponents are averaging over 10 goal kicks per game and I expect that trend to continue here.

In terms of shots, City have hit the required mark for this bet to land in 6 of their 8 Champions League games. The 2 where this didn’t land were essentially dead rubbers; with City already qualified for the knockouts when they took on Leipzig and had 13 shots, the other time they fell short was when they had 14 against Sporting in their last match in the tournament and the team carried a 5 goal lead into that match.

For the longer odds bet, I’ll be sticking with betting angles that favour City dominating proceedings but increasing the lines we have taken. As previously mentioned, Atleti had 10 goal kicks on their trip to Manchester in the last round and City have a lot more cutting edge than their local rivals. For this reason I’m increasing the goal kicks from our main bet required for this one.

Additionally, I’ll be adding Laporte to make over 86.5 passes. The Frenchman hit this mark in the last home Champions League home match despite being substituted and Atletico will be in no rush to deviate from their defensive shape to put pressure on the centre back for long periods.