Odds shown as:

Man City v Brighton Tips: Gundogan features in our trio of selections

Man City v Brighton Tips: Ilkay Gundogan has massively impressed for City in recent outings
Man City v Brighton Tips: Ilkay Gundogan has massively impressed for City in recent outings

Manchester City host Brighton in midweek action, with the Citizens looking to continue their march up the Premier League table. Victory will see the Blues move into third place in the league and, dependent on Manchester United’s result at Burnley on Tuesday, potentially just one point behind their Stretford neighbours.

Premier League betting
Man City v Brighton
Wed, 18:00
Jack Lambden: Man City -2 Asian Handicap
  • Manchester City have started to find their groove now, recording six success wins to kick-start a title charge
  •  The Blues have scored 13 goals in their last 3 games against Brighton
  •  Brighton are without some key players here which makes their task even harder
Odds correct as of 2021-01-12 14:25 Odds subject to change.

The outrights odds of 1/5 for Pep Guardiola's side to record a seventh successive win here is probably a fair reflection of where these two teams currently sit. 

City look to be getting into their groove now after a slow start to a season in which they'll be desperate to retain the Premier League title back from Liverpool's possession. In all competitions, City are unbeaten in 13 matches mainly attributed to a watertight defence which has conceded just 3 goals in 13 fixtures domestically and in Europe

The partnership at the back between John Stones and Ruben Dias is the kind of unity that Guardiola has been seeking for years and especially in more recent times when the free-flowing football has not resulted in the same output of goals at the top end of the pitch. With the best defensive record in the division behind them and the attacking players now settling into their rhythm, I'd be confident of a convincing win here. 

The Blues appeared to have clicked into gear but the same certainly cannot be said for opponents Brighton. 

Graham Potter's men made very hard work of progressing through their FA Cup tie against League Two Newport County, requiring a penalty shoot out to make Round Four. The Seagulls are in pitiful form with just 1 solitary victory in 17 games over 90 minutes, a run which has put Potter under pressure amongst his own fanbase. 

Brighton fans are growing impatient with the lack of results despite a more positive brand of football than under previous gaffer Chris Houghton and a trip to the Etihad is the last thing the South Coast club will want right now, especially given their recent record against City. 

The last three head-to-heads have seen Brighton lose 4-1, 4-0 and 5-0 and a repeat could be on the cards on Wednesday night with the way that the Seagulls are defending this campaign. No team is underperforming on their Expected Goals Against (xGA) as much as Brighton in the top flight - with their xG against at 20.66 and their actual goals conceded standing at 28. 

City have found a way to cope without legendary striker Sergio Aguero in recent weeks with an interchangeable front three/four depending on the formation. Facing a Brighton team that rarely pivot from the same way of playing no matter the opposition, I think City will win by a good margin here against a team missing some really key players such as Yves Bissouma through suspension and Tariq Lamptey with an injury. 

City are 23/25 to cover the -2 on the Asian Handicap with bet365, a bet that will win if they record a victory by a 3 goal margin or higher and be refunded if they only manage a 2 goal margin. 

Today's football tips
Jack Lambden: Ilkay Gundogan 1+ shot on target
  •  Gundogan has hit a shot on target in each of his last 4 Premier League starts
  •  The German has found the net in three of those matches, highlighting his decent finishing
  •  Man City recorded 41 shots in the two combined head-to-heads last season
Odds correct as of 2021-01-12 14:25 Odds subject to change.

One player that has really stood out for me in recent weeks when watching City has been midfielder Ilkay Gundogan. The Germany international is really taking games by the scruff of the neck and by playing alongside Rodri, he has more licence to get forward and break into the box to support his teammates in trying to score. 

That is highlighted by the fact that Gundogan has recorded at least one shot on target in his last four Premier League starts, scoring in 3 games. Goals from your midfielders are crucial for any side looking to challenge for the title and when he gets in to decent positions, Gundogan is a good finisher so I think this price represents some decent value. 

The former Borussia Dortmund star is shorter than Evens (1/1) elsewhere to hit the target and in a game where you would expect City to rack up the shots in (26 and 15 in the two meetings last season), I'm happy to place 2.5 points on the bet.

Jack Lambden: Man City Over 2.5 Goals, Gundogan 1+ SoT & Under 30 Match Booking Points
  •  Darren England has awarded under 30 booking points 6 times in 2020/21
  •  The referee averages just 1.8 cards per game in matches involving Premier League teams this season
  •  This head-to-head since Brighton's promotion has seen a measly 9 cards in 6 contests
Odds correct as of 2021-01-12 14:25 Odds subject to change.

Given all the above, I think it's worth creating a little treble along the lines of thinking we've already covered - this time with City to score 3 or more goals - and including a backing of a low card contest. 

The referee here is Darren England and he has averaged below 3 cards this season (2.9 per game), a figure which is not unique to 2020/21 with a recorded average of 2.77 per match last season. England's record involving Premier League sides brings down his average even more and he's given under 30 booking points six times already this season. 

This fixture since Brighton's promotion to the Premier League has been historically low for cards with just 9 cards shared between them in six meetings and five of those contests seeing less than 30 booking points. Brighton's matches on the road have been low for cards since their last win at Villa Park with two of those 4 contests going by without a single booking at all. 

At 6/1, this treble is worth a little investment to give us even more interest in a game which the home team should dominate from the first whistle. 

Football Bet £20 & Get Money Back As Cash If It Loses

#Ad. New customers only, bet up to £20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you £20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply. Payment restrictions apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Free betting offers
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Money Back As CASH Up To £20 (APP Only)
#AD New customers only. Deposit £20 using card or Trustly. Up to your first £20 of losses will be refunded as CASH within 24 hours of qualifying bet having been settled. T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after  settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after  the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Welcome Offer
#AD Open Account Offer. Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code ‘100BET365’ can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. 18+ begambleaware.org.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. Please gamble responsibly.
Bet £10 On Football & Get £40 In Free Bets + £10 Bonus
#AD £/€10 deposit using promo code "10FREE" - Minimum stake £/€10 at odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager the bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Casino Bonus expires after 60 days - Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & full T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 + 30 Free Spins
#AD New UK & NI customers only. Promo code SPORTS60. Deposit and place first sports bet of £10+ in one transaction, at odds of Evens (2.0)+, settled within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS validation may be required. Max 30 Free Spins on Blue Wizard at £0.10 per spin. 7-day expiry. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As CASH If It Loses
#AD New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any Football market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply.
Get Up To £100 In Free Bets
#AD New customer offer. Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD. New members. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook, placed & settled at 1.5 min odds within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. 2 non-withdrawable £10 Free Bet Tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from acceptance (ex. E/Ws & Multiples), stakes not returned. Click here for Rules & Exclusions. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD Min stake £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Online UK customers only. 30 days to qualify for £20 in Free Bets. 18+. T&Cs apply

Bet £10 On Football & Get £50 In Free Bets

#Ad. 18+ Playsafe. Place a pre-match £10 bet on any Football market between 2nd December and 24th December, at min. odds 1/2 (1.5) — get a total of £50 in free bets, £30 on bet settlement and an additional £20 the following day. Your qualifying bet must settle by Friday 23:59, 24th December. Only deposits via Cards will qualify (Apple Pay deposit excluded). T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

Bet £10 Get £30 + 30 Free Spins

BLACK FRIDAY OFFER #AD New UK & NI customers only. Promo code SPORTS60. Deposit and place first sports bet of £10+ in one transaction, at odds of Evens (2.0)+, settled within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS validation may be required. Max 30 Free Spins on Blue Wizard at £0.10 per spin. 7-day expiry. Full T&Cs apply.

£40 Money Back Acca

#Ad. 18+ Playsafe. New customers only. Opt in, place your first bet on a football 4-fold or higher within 7 days of registration. League restrictions apply. We’ll refund in cash if your 1st bet loses. Valid from 09:00BST 17.09.21. Card payments only. T&Cs apply, 18+ begambleaware.org