Man City vs. Real Madrid Predictions: Two bets for a blockbuster Champions League semi-final

Manchester City host 13 time Champions League winners Real Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final clash. City and their domestic rivals Liverpool came into this years competition as the red hot favourites for the competition, but it is Pep Guardiola’s side who face a stern test to get to the final.

Real Madrid displayed all of the qualities that make them the Kings of this competition in their quarter-final against Chelsea. Karim Benzema was at his brilliant best as he found the net four times over the two legs, and Madrid will need him to be at it again here if they are to overcome this rampant City side.

Pep’s team faced the stern test of Atletico Madrid in the last round. Simeone’s side sat deep and soaked up the pressure for the majority of the tie, before springing into action late in the second leg and launching some attacks of their own. Remarkably, Atletico didn’t have a single shot during the match played in Manchester but Real are likely to show more bite.

City narrowly progressed with a 1-0 victory  over the two legs, but the team showed the characteristics needed for them to go one better than they did last season and win the competition.

City have a whole host of selection worries coming into the tie. Kevin De Bruyne is battling for fitness ahead of the match, but the main worries come at the back. Cancelo is suspended, while Stones and Walker are also doubts for the match.

Man City will know the importance of taking a lead into the second leg in Madrid after their close shave with Atletico in the last round. Real Madrid have proven their attacking potency despite an aging squad and Pep won’t want to be going to the Bernabeu needing a win.

For this reason I’m happy to back City shots. City have hit the required mark for this bet in all of their Champions League home games this season, even when they had a 5-0 lead welcoming Sporting and they had little motivation to attack. In their two away matches in the knockout stages so far, Real have conceded 20 and 21 shots. I see no reason why City can’t reach similar numbers here.

City shots should also lead to a fair amount of goal kicks for the visitors. City opponents are averaging 7.9 goal kicks per game in the Champions League this season and Real Madrid are averaging 7 goal kicks per game.

For the longshot I will take the same angles as the longshot but look to increase the price with further selections. As previously mentioned, Real have conceded a good amount of shots in the knockout stages when playing away from home and I think that trend will continue here so I’m increasing the required amount of City shots to 16. This in turn should lead to more Madrid goal kicks.

I’ll also add under 5.5 goal kicks for the home side. Pep’s team had just 2 goal kicks in the home leg of the last round. They are also averaging less than 4 goal kicks per game in their last 10 home matches in all competitions.