Man City vs. Newcastle Betting Tips: Best bets including a 25/1 longshot
Posted: 14:09 Friday 18th August 2023
An exciting showdown at the Etihad on Saturday evening, live on TNT Sports, as Manchester City welcome Newcastle United after both teams celebrated impressive victories on the opening weekend. Our man Dean Woodward is in the tipping hot seat and has provided his best bets for the game.
Man City enter this clash on a high note, having secured a straightforward 3-0 opening Premier League win over Burnley and further solidified their Premier League dominance with a remarkable 10-game winning streak at the Etihad. In midweek City added UEFA Super Cup glory to their accolades, triumphing against Sevilla in a penalty shootout.
Kevin De Bruyne's unfortunate hamstring problem, aggravated in the Burnley victory, will keep him sidelined for the next three to four months following his recent Champions League final appearance. Pep Guardiola saw John Stones and Ruben Dias return to the squad against Sevilla, while Bernardo Silva is poised to bounce back after recovering from illness. With a quick turnaround, Guardiola might opt for several changes, including considering Julian Alvarez and Rico Lewis for the starting lineup.
Newcastle made a grand statement by demolishing Aston Villa 5-1 at St James' Park in the opening gameweek, putting them top of the table. With Isak and Sandro Tonali leading the charge for the Magpies, they managed to dismantle Villa with relative ease, however, they face an incredibly tough challenge on Saturday day night as they travel to the Premier League holders.
It’s likely Eddie Howe will start with the same XI that demolished Villa last weekend as they face the toughest fixture in the Premier League this early on. Emil Krafth, Joe Willock, and Javier Manquillo remain sidelined. Harvey Barnes, who made a strong impact off the bench with a goal and assist, could challenge Anthony Gordon for the starting XI. Meanwhile, Callum Wilson's goal as a substitute might not be enough to secure him a starting role over the mightily impressive Alexander Isak.
Man City vs Newcastle Tips
- Haaland to score, City to win – bet365 8/5 (1unit)
- Man City over 0 first half goals, Schar over 54.5 passes, Man City under 17.5 shots, Newcastle over 10.5 shots – bet365 25/1 (0.25units)
@DeanWoodward BettingOddsUK Profit/Loss – Jan2022 – Present (+43.97u @ +42.61% ROI)
Man City to Win & Haaland to Score
The Norwegian took the Premier League by storm last season scoring a ridiculous thirty-six goals in just thirty-five appearances (1.17 goals per 90 mins). In these thirty-five matches, he managed to find the net at least once in twenty-three of them, with City going on to take all three points in twenty.
Across the Premier League last season, only three games that Haaland scored in did City fail to go on to take all three points. 8/5 implies a probability of just 38% that City go on to win with Haaland finding the net. There won't be many games throughout this season where we get odds like this for an outcome that occurred in twenty of his thirty-four starts last season.
City Over 0 FH goals, Schar Over 54.5 passes, City Under 17.5 shots, N'castle Over 10.5 shots
Newcastle will come into this all guns blazing under Eddie Howe looking to start fast against the Champions, but this could backfire against a side as good as City if given space. This longshot relies on an early City goal and that’s not out of the realms for the best team in Europe.
Newcastle aren’t renowned for knocking the ball around the back, but given the structured press of City who do so well at closing down many passing lanes into midfield, knocking it around the back can be the only way teams retain the ball against them. An early goal could see these pass lines and shot lines go extremely close. In the previous meeting between the two which resulted in a 2-0 City win, Botman racked up sixty-two passes after a first half City goal, with City only managing eleven shots in the match. A repeat of this could well be on the cards at a huge price.
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