Man City vs. Aston Villa Betting Tips: Back Haaland to score his sixth header at the Etihad

Super Sunday sees Aston Villa travel to Manchester to take on Pep Guadiola’s City side at the Etihad. The game kicks-off at 4:30pm and we’ve got two data-driven selections from our man Anthony Eadson. 

After their 1-0 defeat to Spurs last weekend thanks to a Harry Kane goal, Manchester City have now lost more Premier League matches this season (4), than they did in the entirety of the campaign prior (3). Thankfully for the Blue side of Manchester, Arsenal were also beaten last weekend and Pep will know he cannot afford to drop any more points if they are to hunt down the Gunners at the top of the table. 

• Latest Premier League Relegation Odds

Aston Villa were also beaten last week in the top-flight after a 4-2 home defeat to Leicester City. That was only the second game that Unai Emery has lost since taking over at the club and in his three away matches so far in the top-flight he has managed wins in all of them, at Tottenham, Southampton and Brighton. 

This however represents a stern test for Emery, and his side are unsurprisingly the underdogs for this clash, priced at 12/1 to take the three points with certain betting sites such as William Hill and Betfred. For those fancying a draw, 11/2 is widely available, while a home win for City can be found at 1/4.

We are becoming to sound a little like a broken record here at BettingOdds with how much we are recommending selections from the player fouls market at the moment, but with some excellent prices and the ability to combine players into a Bet Builder, BetUK are proving to be one of our favourite betting sites in these early months of 2023. 

Our main bet here comes in the form of both Emi Buendia and Ashley Young to commit Over 0.5 fouls, which weighs in at 7/5 with BetUK, compared to just 19/20 over at Paddy Power and Betfair. 

• Player Fouls Betting Guide

Let’s start with Buendia, The Argentine has been enjoying a good run in the side under Unai Emery and looking back at his foul-figures we can see that he has given away at least one in all of his last 11 league matches! Of those 11 most recent league games, Buendia has given away two or more fouls in seven of them and should have plenty of defensive duties on Sunday. 

We are pairing Buendia to commit a foul with Ashley Young also to clear the same line. The main thinking behind this one is that Young will be up against Jack Grealish, one of the most fouled players in the division over the last few years. In four of Grealish’s last five starts for City, the right-back or right-wing-back he has been up against has given away two fouls and with this in mind and Ashley Young being a former Manchester United player we fancy him to make at least one against tough opposition.

Our other selection for the game is for Erling Haaland to score a header, which is available at 8/1 with bet365. Haaland only scored five headed goals when at Borussia Dortmund who were known for keeping the ball very much on the floor in that period. 

I spoke earlier in the campaign about how I thought that figure would increase rapidly for Haaland at City and he has duly obliged, already bagging five headers in the Premier League alone. 

72% of Haaland’s league goals have arrived in home matches this term, and all five of his headed goals have also been at the Etihad. With almost 28% of the Norwegian's home league goals being headers and Villa conceding four to Leicester last weekend, 8/1 looks a solid play with bet365. 

Did you know that bet365 pay your team out as a winner if they go 2 goals ahead at any time in the match (available on over 80 leagues and competitions, T&C's apply). Find out more on our bet365 offers page.