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Luton vs. Sheffield United Betting Tips: We're going shot mad at Kenilworth Road

Luton vs. Sheffield United: Sander Berge is heavily featured in both our bets
Luton vs. Sheffield United: Sander Berge is heavily featured in both our bets

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Luton vs. Sheffield United Odds

This weekend's Championship action commences at Kenilworth Road where Luton host leaders Sheffield United at 20:00 live on Sky Sports. We've asked JimmyThePunt to preview this one and give us his best two bets. Jimmy landed a 90/1 shot last week and is on red hot form. 

Luton vs. Sheffield United Tips

The visitors will head down south brimming with confidence having bested both Sunderland and Blackburn last week by an aggregate score of 5-0, the latter saw them generate an xG of 3.92 and conceded an xGA of just 0.11. 

Both these clashes took place on home turf. If the Blades can emulate their form at Bramall Lane on the road, they should secure a return to the top flight, however, this proved to be an issue since Paul Heckingbottom took charge. 

Under him, at home they have averaged 2.5 points, on their travels that drops to 1.33 points per game. 

Following an impressive cameo that saw him find the net twice, Iliman Ndiaye replaced the Reda Khadra attack. 

As for the hosts, Carlton Morris could come in for Admiral Muskwe uptop. The former scored the second at Swansea and could be crucial in addressing the Hatters' woes in front of goal. Nathan Jones' side have only scored thrice so far this season, yet they have generated an xG of 5.27. 

Championship Odds
Sander Berge Over 0.5 Shots on Target
6/5
Odds correct as of 2022-08-25 10:35 Odds subject to change.

I touted a Sander Berge shot on target for Sheffield United’s trip to Vicarage Road on opening day. Despite only registering three as a team, Berge registered an SOT to see the bet land. 

That game included, the Norwegian has racked up a total of ten shots in five league appearances. Of players to feature in 300 minutes or more, his shots per game average of two is only rivalled by Ollie Norwood (1.8) at Sheffield United.

The reason for the original tip and the glut of attacking output for Berge, that has also seen him score twice and register an assist, was a tactical tweak that has seen him feature in a more advanced role.  

Originally he was signed as a holding midfielder but Chris Wilder, Jokanović and now Heckingbottom all think he is better suited to a more attacking role, particularly at Championship level.

For Genk playing in the Champions League and internationally with Norway, his large stature- both of his parents were professional basketball players- and technical ability made him a natural fit for CDM. However, he also has incredible pace and can drive through the lines on the ball, and these attributes were not utilised in a deep position in the second tier.

Under Heckingbottom, Berge started 23 games in more advanced positions during which he bagged seven goals (goals per 90 average of 0.41 this campaign) and registered five assists giving his prices in the goal scorer and assist markets appeal. 

In those 23 starts in CAM under Heckingbottom, Berge averaged 0.66 SoT’s per 90 with this angle landing in 61% of those fixtures, the odds only suggest there is a 46% chance of this angle landing though. 

It might be worth shopping around for the best odds as not all bookmakers have this market priced yet.

Today's Football Tips
Berge Over 1.5 Shots on Target, Oli McBurnie Over 3.5 Shots
28/1
Odds correct as of 2022-08-25 10:40 Odds subject to change.

Statistically speaking, the 7/1 available with Bet365 is too short. Berge has only him this line in 9% of his appearances in CAM over the last two seasons and the implied probability of these odds is 12.5%. 

The 24 year old has gone from strength-to-strength this season and appears to be relishing the interest in him. He has hit six shots in his last two games, five of which are target bound, so I think this is worth combining with something in a longshot. 

At 28/1, you can couple this with Oliver McBurnie to have over 3.5 attempts. In the Blades last game, McBurnie’s first start of the season, the big man racked up a staggering total of eight shots. 

His domestic goal drought- stretching back two years and 43 games- has been well documented, however, the striker seems understandably keen to end it. The 26 year olds endeavour v Blackburn was well received by manager and fans alike so he should keep his spot on Friday. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.  

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