Luton vs Bournemouth Odds: Back the Cherries in Championship Saturday lunchtime clash

Luton will be hoping to pick up where they left off in December, a month where they went unbeaten. Granted they only played twice, but they secured an impressive point against Fulham and convincingly beat Blackpool taking four points in total, scoring four goals in the process and shipping just one. 

The Hatters will also draw confidence from the reverse fixture where, despite coming away from the South Coast empty handed, Nathan Jones side did more than enough to win. Luton generated almost twice the xG of their hosts on that late September afternoon and outshot Scott Parker’s side by 50%. Pivitally, they came up short in the most important metric though - goals scored - by one.

Scott Parker’s Bournemouth top the tree, they are one point ahead of Fulham as I write, though the Cottagers have a game in hand. The Cherries are in fine fettle as well having won their last three matches in all competitions.  

In terms of team news, Parker has suggested that this clash may come too soon for Cherries new boys James Hill and Ethan Laird. Elsewhere for the visitors, Adam Smith and Junior Stanislas are also expected to miss out with injuries. This means that Bouremouth could field the same XI that brushed Cardiff aside 3-0 in their last league games.

Last time I covered a Cherries fixture it was for their trip to the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Bournemouth to win to nil was probably my favourite selection that day and it copped at 18/5. It is very much a case of rinse and repeat here for their trip to Kenilworth Road. 

As I explained at the back end of last year, the reason I regard this angle as value is because of the quality of Bournemouth’s first choice centre backs; Gary Cahill and Lloyd Kelly. This bet is all about the dynamic duo at the heart of Scott Parker’s defence. 

Staggeringly, 70% of the goals Bourenmouth have conceded this season have come in absence of Gary Cahill or Lloyd Kelly, or both. With the pair in defence, Bournemouth have played 15 domestic games, during which their side have kept more clean sheets (10), then they have conceded goals (6). Without them, the Cherries have shipped plenty, in the ten games without, the side has conceded 14 goals and kept just two clean sheets. 

The difference, in terms of goals conceded per game, with and without the pair in the side is exactly one. With Cahill and Kelly on the pitch, Bournemouth have a GA per game average of 0.40, without either one of them that increases to 1.40!   

Of all the overwhelming data to support backing this bet, my favourite statistic is the fact that Bournemouth have won 60% of the 15 games that the pair have featured in from the off  to nil! If you were to directly convert that percentage into a price, it would translate to 1.67 and by that logic, Bet365’s price of 10/3 certainly looks a touch long to me.

If you are after something with a bit more juice you can combine a Lewis Cook card with the selection above at odds of 21/1 with Betfair. 

With a domestic cards per 90 average of 0.24 over the course of his career, his price of 7/2 with Betfair does represent marginal value as it is. This season, he has been particularly cynical though, accumulating three cards in just over 600 minutes of league football. 

It is also worth noting that the referee for this fixture is Leigh Doughty, one of the best referee’s for cards in the division. 

Best of luck if you are following and please remember to gamble responsibly.