Liverpool vs. Villarreal Stats: We've analysed the data and picked out a 16/1 treble
The Champions League semi-final first legs conclude on Wednesday with Liverpool versus Villarreal. We will have a full match preview and best bets on the site from our regular tipsters, but we've also asked our statman @OddsT3rrier to take a deep dive into the recent history between the two sides, and look into this season's stats to see if there are any angles which you can use to your betting advantage.
The second semi-final features two sides who haven't faced each other often in European competition. In fact they have only played twice, in the 2016 Europa League semi-final. Villarreal won the first leg 1-0, thanks to an Adrián López injury time goal. The Reds then gained revenge at Anfield with a comprehensive 3-0 win, including goals from Daniel Sturridge and Adam Lallana. A 3-0 scoreline tonight is as short as 9/1 at SBK.
Unsurprisingly, Villarreal players feature heavily in the to be carded market. You have eight players who are shorter than Liverpool's first entrant - Fabinho. The Yellow Submarine have far more cautions this season (67 in La Liga and 18 in Champions League) when compared to Liverpool (43 in EPL and 12 in UCL).
One man who stands out is Etienne Capoue who has only one solitary card in the Champions League, yet has committed 16 fouls. When we study his La Liga season, we can see he's not been so lucky - picking up seven cautions from 41 fouls. He is best priced 5/2 (unibet) tonight to pick up another yellow, Not bad value compared to the stingy 21/20 at BetVictor.
For Liverpool, the aforementioned Fabinho is 7/2 to pick up his first UCL caution and the EPL stats certainly back up that logic. He is The Red's biggest offender with six yellows and is up against the spiky pair of Capoue and Dani Parejo tonight.
When we move onto the shots and goals markets and its absolutely dominated by the Liverpool forwards. It may be worth waiting for team news as any of Salah, Mane, Jota or Diaz could start here. Salah is as short as 4/5 to score anytime and 8/11 to have 2+ shots on target. The other three strikers are just over evens for 2+ SoT. A better option might be going for a Jordan Henderson shot on target at 23/10 - he has four already in the competition, or for a longer price, a Ibrahima Konate shot on target at 7/2. He is always a threat from set pieces and has already scored twice this campaign.
An Arnaut Danjuma shot on target looks decent value for the visitors. He has six goals and 14 shots on target in the Champions League, yet is as large as 10/11 to notch one here and 18/5 to have two. He's only failed to manage one shot on target twice in the UCL this time.
I've combined a Capoue booking, Henderson shot on target and a Danjuma shot on target which pays 16/1 at Paddy Power utilising their bet builder.
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