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Liverpool v Everton Tips: Alan primed for fifth booking in 12 games in Merseyside derby

Allan has picked up four yellow cards in 12 appearances this term and features in our 50/1 selection for the game
Allan has picked up four yellow cards in 12 appearances this term and features in our 50/1 selection for the game

It’s now over 10 years since Everton managed to beat Liverpool in a Merseyside derby and you have to go all the way back to 1999 for the last time that The Toffees won at Anfield. Liverpool’s drastic decline in the Premier League over the last two months had not been forecast by many punters, with the Reds now a staggering 16 points off Manchester City.

This season’s previous league clash between Everton and Liverpool proved eventful at Goodison Park and our man @AnthonyEadson has three football tips for the reverse fixture that can be seen live on Sky Sports kicking off at 5:30pm Saturday.

Ozan Kabak will continue at the centre of defence alongside Jordan Henderson if Fabinho does not recover in time for this game. Joel Matip, Naby Keita, Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Diogo Jota all remain on the treatment table.

Everton will welcome Dominic Calvert-Lewin back to their starting XI this weekend with Richarlison to play a slightly deeper role to that of the last two games. Allan should also be fit to start in central midfield after missing the last couple of months.

Gylfi Sigurdsson 1+ shot on target - 2pts @ 9/5, Betfair, Paddy Power

Mason Holgate to be carded - 1pt @ 4/1, bet365

Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ shot on target, Thiago & Allan to be carded - 0.25pts @ 50/1 Paddy Power

Gylfi Sigurdsson 1+ shot on target
Odds correct as of 2021-02-18 17:20 Odds subject to change.

Followers of my selections will know that I’ve tipped up Gylfi Sigurdssson to have a shot on target on a good few occasions of late with the most recent coming on Wednesday evening when the Iceland international obliged at the generous price of 2/1. I’m once again leaning towards Gylfi in the shots on target market and will be taking the 9/5 on offer from Betfair, should he start on Saturday.

A potential free-kick and penalty taker the 31-year-old has put in some solid performances over recent weeks, notably in the FA Cup victory over Spurs where he got on the scoresheet and hit the target twice. In the Premier League, Sigurdsson has registered four shots on target in his last three starts with an average of 0.56 shots on target per game this campaign. I still think he’s overpriced here with Sky bet having the same selection odds-on at 5/6. Considering he’s landed at least one shot on target in his last four starts in all competitions I’m more than willing to have a dabble on the Dolly Parton price of 9/5.

Mason Holgate to be carded
Odds correct as of 2021-02-18 17:25 Odds subject to change.

After a heated fixture which led to Virgil Van Dijk’s injury back in October that included five yellows and one red card, I’m expecting a good few to be shown by referee Chris Kavanagh at Anfield. The official ranks 8th of 19 top-flight referees this season for yellows per game with 3.07 shown on average. 

One player I’m keen on to find their way into Kav’s book is Everton’s Mason Holgate. The versatile defender has been booked four times in 13 league appearances this season but if we drill down further into that he has been shown a yellow card in three of the five away matches he has participated in. Furthermore, whether at right-back or centre-back Holgate may have to cover Liverpool’s Sadio Mane who is the third most fouled player in the league this season behind Jack Grealish and Wilfired Zaha. At 4/1 with bet365 I’m having a one point play on Holgate to pick up his fifth league booking of the campaign which is currently the best price available.

Premer League Betting
Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ shot on target, Thiago & Allan to be carded
Odds correct as of 2021-02-18 17:25 Odds subject to change.

At 50/1 I’ve also picked out a Same Game Multi, available with either Betfair or Paddy Power. This consists of Trent Alexander-Arnold to have a shot on target, with both Thiago and Allan to be shown a card.

As I mentioned above Chris Kavanagh takes control of this game and he also ranks 3rd of 19 when it comes to free-kicks awarded this season with (24.49pg). With this in mind and being a local derby that has plenty of added spice from the first fixture I think Liverpool should get a couple of shooting opportunities from free-kicks. This was the case at Goodison in October where Trent had two shots from free-kicks, one of which hit the target (that we also tipped up here at The right-back has come under criticism for some of his performances lately but has registered a shot on target in four of his last nine matches in all competitions.

Thiago Alcantara has been a major talking point over recent weeks however it’s his stats around fouls that have caught my eye. No player to have played more than five games this season is currently averaging more fouls in the Premier League than Thiago with 2.4 per game. With three yellow cards in eight starts he looks primed for a booking, especially when considering Richarlison’s horror tackle on the Spaniard earlier in the season. With tensions high on Saturday and an average of 2.9 fouls per 90 minutes in the league this term, which is then highest of any player in the division, I’m more than happy to slot the 29-year-old into this longshot.

Rounding off the trio of selections is Everton’s Brazilian midfielder, Allan to be carded. I’m expecting the little tiger (as Martin Keown called him earlier in the season) to be back in the starting line up on Saturday and based on four bookings in 12 league appearances, he looks like another likeable prospect. No player at Everton averages more fouls per game than Allan this campaign and hopefully he can see yellow to round off this 50/1 selection. 

That’s 9/5, 4/1 and 50/1 picks for the Merseyside derby. Best of luck to those following and as usual, please gamble in a responsible manner and seek help should you feel a problem. 

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