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Liverpool vs. Manchester City Betting Tips: Back overpriced Diaz in the shots market

Luis Diaz recorded 2+ shots in nine of his 11 Premier League starts last season for Liverpool and features in our bets
Luis Diaz recorded 2+ shots in nine of his 11 Premier League starts last season for Liverpool and features in our bets

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It feels like this summer has flown by, and with the Football League getting underway this weekend, it’s also time for the Community Shield. Liverpool will face Manchester City at the King Power stadium rather than Wembley, due to the Lionesses featuring in the European Championships final at the home of football on Sunday. We’ve got our resident rambler @AnthonyEadson on hand to provide us with his best bets for the game that kicks off at 5:00pm Saturday and can be seen live on ITV.

Liverpool have not lifted the Community Shield since back in 2006, but it was Jurgen Klopp’s side that got their hands on both domestic cups last season, with Manchester City winning the league title. It looks like these two teams will be fighting it out at the top of the table once again this term, with both teams adding to their attacking department during the summer window.

Erling Haaland and Darwin Nunez will be both looking for places in the starting line-up as they settle into their new surroundings, with the former having scored his first goal for Pep’s side in a friendly against Bayern Munich last week. 

Craig Pawson will be the man taking the whistle for this match at Leicester’s stadium. He averaged a healthy 4.2 yellows per game last season, but with this being a Community Shield game, card backers should be wary. The last five Community Shield renewals have yielded yellow card totals of: 3,1,1,0,4. 

Liverpool vs Manchester City Tips

Liverpool vs Manchester City Odds

My main selection for the Community Shield comes from the shots market with bet365, where I’ve taken a lean towards Luis Diaz. The Stoke-based firm have even money (1/1) on show at the time of writing for the Colombian to register over 1.5 shots in the match, which looks a tasty price to me considering the same selection is just 2/5 over at Paddy Power and Betfair. 

The 25-year-old took to Liverpool like a scouser to Hugo Boss when he arrived from Porto in January. Diaz slotted straight into Klopp’s attack on arrival and averaged 3.5 shots per 90 mins across his 13 appearances in the Premier League, while in Europe he bettered that figure, letting off 4.45 shots per 90. This line of Over 1.5 shots was cleared by Diaz in nine of his 11 league starts for Liverpool last season, and at the current price I’m happy to have him on board to register two or more against City.

Premier League Odds
Luis Diaz Over 1.5 Shots
1/1
Odds correct as of 2022-07-28 16:25 Odds subject to change.

When Liverpool and Manchester City have faced off in recent years, there has often been a glut of goals. Over 3.5 goals has landed in all of the past four meetings between the sides, and looking back further, the same line has also been cleared in 11 of the last 15. 

However, punters should recognise that Community Shield matches can often yield a low amount of goals, with a lower tempo and often more of a pre-season friendly vibe to proceedings. All of the five of the last Community Shield games have seen under 2.5 goals, including when Man City met Liverpool in the competition in 2019 with the score finishing 1-1 after 90 mins. Looking back further, all of the last nine Community Shield matches have featured under 3.5 goals, and I’ll be including that selection in this three pronged Bet Builder that pays 9/2 with bet365.

The second part of the bet is Liverpool’s Mohammed Salah to have over 0.5 shots on target in the match. I’m surprised to see 8/11 available here as a single for Salah to have a shot on target considering he averaged 1.7 per game in the league last term, racking up 60 in total in 35 appearances. When Liverpool faced City in the 2019 Community Shield, Salah let off 10 shots in total, with four of those hitting the target. 

Rounding off this 9/2 poke is Kevin De Bruyne to have a shot on target. There is a strong chance that the Belgian will be subbed off in the second half, but at even money for a shot on target, again, this selection looks overpriced. No Manchester City player registered more shots on target in the league last season than KDB, who averaged just over 1 per game, with 31 in 30 appearances. De Bruyne, who registered a shot on target in each of his two games against Liverpool last season, looks good value to hit another in this season opener.

Those three selections combine to make a 9/2 Bet Builder with bet365. Good luck to those following the picks this weekend. Please gamble responsibly. 

Under 4 Match goals, Salah & De Bruyne Over 0.5 shots on target each
9/2
Odds correct as of 2022-07-28 16:30 Odds subject to change.
Community Shield Bet Builder
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