Leicester vs. Manchester City Betting Tips: Back Soumare to be booked at the King Power

Live on BT Sport with a 12:30 kick off on Saturday, Manchester City take the trip to the King Power Stadium to face Leicester City. 

A turn in fortunes for Leicester City who are now starting to put in some good performances and getting some results along the way. An awful start to their Premier League season saw Leicester sit rock bottom of the Premier League after seven games, with just one point, their worst ever start to a Premier League campaign. Since then, it seems as if a corner has been turned, picking up three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, pushing them up the table to 17th place.

Things don’t get any easier though as they welcome Manchester City to the King Power Stadium, with the only positive being extra rest compared to City who played midweek in the Champions League. Wilfred Ndidi could be fit for Saturday, but it is not known whether he will be risked here. Scoring off the bench in the 4-0 win over Wolves last week may reward Jamie Vardy with his 8th start of the season, with Patson Daka likely to drop to the bench. 

Hot on the heels of Premier League leaders Arsenal, Pep Guardiola will be hoping his Manchester city side can take all three points and climb above Arsenal before they play on Sunday against Nottingham Forest. A 0-0 draw with Dortmund on Tuesday almost guarantees a top spot in Group G of the Champions League, with full focus now reverting to the Premier League.

Erling Haaland and Joao Cancelo were both withdrawn at half time against Dortmund due to a knock and a fever. Pep is yet to confirm whether they will play on Saturday, although it's rumoured they both could be fit and available, but might not be risked. Stones returned to the side midweek and impressed, likely to retain his place at right back. With such an unbelievable squad, it's likely Pep will rotate yet again, with Grealish and Kevin De Bruyne both likely to return to the XI.

Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Ward; Castagne, Faes, Amartey, Justin; Soumare; Maddison, Tielemans, Dewsbury-Hall, Barnes; Vardy

Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Cancelo, Dias, Akanji, Laporte; Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Foden, Alvarez, Grealish

Diving into the prop markets for this early kick off, where I believe there is some good value in the tackles market. Bet365 have priced Leicester tackles at a line of 18.5 which I feel is a couple too high against this Manchester City side who are just incredible in possession.

In Leicester's twelve Premier League games this season, they have cleared this line five times (41%), so the pricing of this line looks relatively fair value. If you dig a little further though, being so good with the ball, most teams struggle to get near Manchester City, meaning their opposition tackles are extremely low. In their seventeen matches this season, their opposition has only cleared this line on three occasions (17.6%) so backing unders looks the way in here.

With Ndidi out of the team in recent weeks, this has made way for the French defensive midfielder to have a good run of starts in this improving Leicester side. In just seven starts this season, Soumare has picked up three yellow cards, all of which have come in his last five matches. 

In the Premier League this season, of the Leicester players to have made five or more appearances, Soumare has committed the most fouls per 90, making 1.7 on average. Playing in midfield against a side like Manchester City, you see very little of the ball and frustration can set in. Against Manchester City in the last six matches, five central midfielders have gone into the book, making this 5/1 look very appealing.