Leicester vs. Brentford Betting Tips: Tielemans a tasty price for a shot on target

Leicester City host Brentford in one of three top-flight matches on Sunday and we’ve got @AnthonyEadson on hand to preview the action and provide us with two data-driven bets that he likes the look of. 

After losing Kasper Schmeichel this week, it feels even more important for the Foxes to hold on to at least two of Youri Tielemans, Wesley Fofana and James Maddison, with all three rumoured to be top targets for other Premier League clubs. Brendan Rodgers’ side have performed well in pre-season with four consecutive victories, the most recent of those being over Sevilla. 

Brentford also finished off their pre-season preparations by beating another Spanish side in Real Betis. The loss of Christian Eriksen will leave a huge hole in Thomas Frank’s side after the former Spurs and Inter Milan midfielder put in some classy performances for the Bees in helping them secure a 13th place finish. Safety will once again be the number one priority for Brentord, with the fans hoping they don’t suffer a case of the old second-season-syndrome. 

Moving onto team news, and for Leicester, Harvey Barnes will miss out due to a knee injury, while Danny Ward is expected to line up in goal for the home side. Ricardo Pereira will also miss the season opener after picking up an achilles injury against Sevilla last weekend.

Thomas Frank looks set to hand debuts to some of his new recruits, with Ben Mee, Aaron Hickey both expected to feature from the off. Brentford’s record signing Keane Lewis-Potter may have to settle for a place on the substitutes bench.

The future of Youri Tielemans remains uncertain, with several sources still linking him with a move away from the King Power, to Arsenal. For now though, the Belgian remains a Leicester City player, and I expect him to start from the off against The Bees on Sunday. The selection I like involving Tielemans, is for him to have 1+ shot on target, which is available at 6/4 with BetVictor at the time of writing.

Youri Tielemans averaged 1.8 shots per game last season and when looking at just home fixtures, that figure rises to a healthy 2.2 shots per game. In fact, in 10 of his 17 home games he cleared the 3+ shots line, but it’s one on target which I’ve opted for here. The 25-year-old managed 10 shots on target in 17 appearances on home soil in 2021/2022 and with Brendan Rodgers looking to start the season with a win, he looks good value at 6/4 for 1+ shot on target, considering the same selection is odds-on with bet365, Skybet and Paddy Power.

Brentford’s Christian Norgaard has been recovering from a knee injury in recent weeks but after his performance against Real Betis in a friendly last week, Thomas Frank was quoted saying “Christian is one of our best players. What a difference. What an impact he made when he stopped on that pitch”.

With this in mind you would have to fancy that Norgaard will start against Leicester on Sunday and I’m backing him to pick up a yellow card from Australian referee Jarred Gillett. The official took control of nine top-flight matches last term, brandishing an average of 3.4 cautions per game. 

In 2021/2022 Norgaard was shown eight yellow cards, the joint most for Brentford in the campaign, along with striker Ivan Toney. However, looking back through the fixtures, seven of Norgaard’s bookings came in away matches. With this in mind, 100/30 looks a reasonable price that we can get behind after seven yellows in 17 appearances away from the Brentford Community Stadium last season.