Legia Warsaw vs. Aston Villa Betting Tips: Douglas Luiz in focus for Thursday's UECL clash
Posted: 11:28 Wednesday 20th September 2023
Aston Villa's first European excursion for 13 years begins with a trip to Poland to face Legia Warsaw in the third restoration of the Europa Conference League.
A European return has been a long time coming for Aston Villa. Through the trials and tribulations of a relegation, three seasons in the Championship, a promotion, Premier League survival, the Jack Grealish saga and three different managers since returning to the top-flight, Unai Emery has stepped in and transformed AVFC back into a real force.
Standing in their way on Gameweek 1 are Legia Warsaw - 16-time Polish champions and 20-time domestic cup holders. 2022/23 season aside, the club is used to playing at a higher European level, with this term marking their first venture in the Europa Conference League.
Tournament favourites Villa have been priced at 1/2 to open up their campaign with a victory. Legia Warsaw, who are down at a 150/1 to lift the trophy, can be backed at 11/2 to win.
Legia Warsaw vs Aston Villa Tips
Douglas Luiz Anytime Goalscorer
There was always the feeling that if Douglas Luiz had the right coach in place and a talented enough squad around him that he could flourish in a Villa shirt.
Last season proved that theory correct, with the Brazilian named Players' Player and Supporters' Player of the Season in Unai Emery's European qualifying team.
Amidst his augmentation, the 25-year-old has been handed penalty taking responsibilities and has so far passed that test with flying colours.
He's scored three goals in seven games, all of which have come from the spot. Right when Emery thought he had a penalty-taking crisis on his hands, it turns out the solution was staring at him in the face the whole time.
One of these came in Villa's UECL qualifier against Hibernian, while another conversion was made in injury-time last weekend to secure his side all three points vs Crystal Palace.
We've seen him score directly from corners, strike from distance and float into the box to finish from close range, particularly last campaign with his visible adaptability in Emery's system.
With plenty of opportunities for Villa to win a penalty through John McGinn, Nicolo Zaniolo, Moussa Diaby, Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins, we think the 9/2 on offer is a fair price.
Douglas Luiz To Score & Be Carded
Building on our previous selection, we're adding Douglas Luiz to be carded which bumps us up to 8/1 with bet365.
The Brazilian has picked up 51 cards in his 229-game career so far; 36 of which have come since joining Aston Villa.
Luiz accrued back-to-back cautions in Villa's two opening Premier League fixtures against Newcastle and Everton, and is well known for his penchant for the dark arts.
Both of those bookings came in the first 15 minutes of those games and Villa's trip to Poland could require a similar tactic from him in the early stages of this contest.
The bet has dropped once already this season, and we believe it's got a good chance of landing again in Warsaw.
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