Lazio v Roma Tips: Smalling to find the book in this intense Italian rivalry
Tonight we head to Italy for the eagerly anticipated Derby della Capitale as Lazio bout with bitter foe Roma. The hatred between both clubs usually fuel intense encounters that are not shy of cards therefore I have turned to this market and found two tempting selections at 5/1 and 77/1.
The Bianscocelesti come into this fresh off the back of two victories and their attacking options have been bolstered by the return of Joaquin Correa. VIsitors Roma eagerly await an update on the availability of winger Pedro, however, it is unlikely the Spaniard will start here. This means that Lorenzo Pellegrini and Henrikh Mkhitaryan are expected to start behind Edin Dzeko.
- Smalling has picked up 2 cards in his last 3 appearances
- The Derby della Capitale’s last 6 H2H’s has seen an average of 6Y and 0.33R per game
- Ref, Daniele Orsato has brandished an average of 5.67Y and 0.33R per game in Serie A this season
Some games just lend themselves to certain markets and this Italian match-up throws itself at the mercy of cards. The last six head to heads have seen a total of 36Y and 2R and referee Daniele Orsato has averaged exactly six cards per game domestically this season, making the perfect concoction of circumstances for a few to be brandished at the Stadio Olimpico this evening.
My selection comes courtesy of ex-Manchester United centre back Chris Smalling. In his last three appearances he has had his name taken twice. Tonight, he will most likely be opposing Immobile, who has drawn an average of 1.5 fouls per game, and Correa, Lazio’s most fouled player drawing 2.4 per game.
Bet365’s price of 5/1 makes him the joint longest price for an outfielder to go into the book. Elsewhere, Smalling is as short as 11/4!
Given that Smalling has averaged a card every 0.10 games in Serie A, you could make a case that this price does not represent value. However, given his recent record, the short fuse of the referee and Derby della Capitale’s tendency to involve a lot of cards, I think 5/1 is certainly worth a punt!
- Dzeko has picked up three cards in his last four apps vs Lazio
- Smalling has been booked twice in his last three outings
- Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is also a serial offender with two cards in his last three appearances and averages 1.4 fouls pG this season
Given this fixture's reputation for cards, I have combined a Smalling card with Edin Dzeko and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to join him in the book at odds of 77/1 with bet365.
In his last four appearances in this fixture, Dzeko has picked up three cards. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is also a serial offender with two cards in his last three appearances. The Serbian midfielder has also averaged 1.4 fouls per game this season.
Good luck to anyone following these tips and please remember to gamble responsibly.