La Liga Preview 2022/23: Title race, Top-4, and Top Goalscorer markets

It’s going to be an eventful ride over in Spain this season as Real Madrid look to win back-to-back titles for the first time since 06/07 & 07/08. Standing in their way are old foes Barcelona, who have recruited a cluster of exciting stars such as Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha - albeit there’s a catch, which we’ll get to in a moment - in a bid to win the title for the first time in four years. Elsewhere, La Liga welcomes back manager Ernesto Valverde who has returned to Athletic Bilbao for a third spell, while Valencia begin a new chapter under Gennaro Gattuso; expect fireworks.

Below we look at the title odds, top-four market, and race to win the Golden Boot…

The 2022/23 La Liga season kicks-off on Friday 12th August

Who will win La Liga?

Defending champions Real Madrid have been installed as the 5/4 favourites to retain their title, but only narrowly with Barcelona hot on their heels at 11/8. Little separates the top-two who are followed by Atletico Madrid at 6/1, with Sevilla 20/1 outsiders.

Real Madrid memorably claimed a spectacular La Liga and Champions League double last season. Los Blancos may struggle to replicate that this term, but I'm still backing them to retain the league title. They infamously missed out on Kylian Mbappe, however Carlo Ancelotti has bolstered the defence through the addition of Antonio Rüdiger, while £68.3m has been spent on French midfielder Aurélien Tchouameni. 

Barcelona’s financial situation continues to baffle and bedazzle in equal measure. On one hand they are riddled in debt, yet they’ve somehow managed to splash £150m on an array of high-profile additions. However, the chaos and carnage continues following the news that La Liga won’t yet allow the club to register summer signings such as Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, and Jules Koundé, who at the time of writing are each set to miss the first game. It’s a confusing and complex situation that will hopefully be clarified soon.

In truth, I’m expecting a two-horse race for the title. Given that Real Madrid are in a far more stable condition than Barcelona, I'm backing the capital club to mount a successful title defence for the first time in seemingly forever. You can never rule out Atletico Madrid of course, despite a thoroughly disappointing 2021/22 campaign during which they tailed off after a reasonable start; finishing a hefty 15 points adrift of winners Real in 3rd. I don’t think they’ll be able to make up this gap to be honest, although they can be backed at 8/11 in the market without Real Madrid and Barcelona.

Villarreal the pick for a top-4 finish?

Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico should comfortably secure the top-3 places - most likely in that order - but who could claim the fourth and final Champions League spot? 

Last season it was Sevilla, although in the end it was a rather deflating finish as they were in the title conversation only for their momentum to be punctured by a splattering of draws from the New Year onwards. Still, it’s Julen Lopetegui’s side - fuelled by the arrival of Isco - who are the shortest price of the remaining 17 teams at 11/8 (bet365) to finish in the top-4.

Villarreal tickle my fancy at 3/1. For starters, they have an excellent manager in Unai Emery who has overseen a couple of superb continental campaigns - Europa League winners then Champions League semi-finalists - and if they can carry those performances over into La Liga they could well be ones to watch. Converting draws into wins will be key for the Yellow Submarine.

Elsewhere, Real Sociedad and Real Betis are hovering around the 9/2 mark, Athletic Bilbao and the returning Ernesto Valverde are 6/1, while Valencia are out at 20/1 to claim a top-4 finish in Gennaro Gattuso’s first season.

Karim Benzema vs Robert Lewandowski for the Golden Boot?

After a summer of rampant rumours, goal-machine Robert Lewandowski (2/1) swapped Bayern for Barcelona. Top-goalscorer in the Bundesliga in each of the last five seasons - and seven of the last nine - it would be a huge shock if he didn’t take La Liga by storm. However, his quest for a glut of goals may be ever so slightly hindered by not actually being registered to play yet, meaning he could miss a few games at the start of the season.

So, advantage Karim Benzema then?

Possibly. Benzema bagged the Golden Boot at a canter in 2021/22, accumulating 27 goals, which put him nine clear of Iago Aspas. It was, surprisingly, the first time the Frenchman had got his mitts on the award and he’s priced at 9/4 to retain it. He's in the form of his life and it won't be too much of a surprise if he's crowned Ballon d'or winner later this year.

Benzema and Lewandowski are the obvious stand-out names in this market, rightly so too, they are two of the best strikers on the planet. But one player to keep an eye on is the coruscating Vinicius Junior at 14/1 (each-way, four places). The Brazilian star continues to improve season-by-season, particularly from a scoring perspective: netting 17 league goals last term. Should he continue to sparkle, Vinicius could well offer teammate Benzema some friendly competition in the goalscoring charts. 

Another each-way pick is Espanyol's Raúl de Tomás at 25/1. After scoring 23 goals in the Segunda División in 2020/21, he then fired in 17 in La Liga last season - only Benzema and Aspas scored more - and now under the wing of excellent new boss Diego Martinez, De Tomás will look to continue his fine form in front of goal.

If you’re after a really intriguing price then João Félix is a massive 50/1 with bet365. Still only 22, could this be the year that Atletico’s mega-money purchase finally shows Spain what he’s all about...?