Japan vs. Croatia Betting Tips: Two data-driven picks for last-16 clash

Japan face Croatia on Monday afternoon at the World Cup in Qatar and our man Scott Thornton has provided us with his best bets for the game.

Japan were the story of the group stage. They managed to top a group that contained Spain and Germany. Croatia were unbeaten in the groups but played out two goalless draws.

Moriyasu’s side beat Germany in their opening match that proved to be decisive. They were surprisingly beaten by  Costa Rica before securing qualification and top spot by coming from behind to beat Spain in their final group game. Japan will be keen to ensure their performance level doesn’t drop after beating a Spain side that had started to gather momentum.

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Japan have a great chance of making it to the last 8. They now face a Croatia side that have looked a shadow of the side that reached the final in 2018. Dalic’s men beat Canada 4-1 and drew against Belgium in their final match to eliminate the team that finished third at the last World Cup.

Croatia have seen a decent amount of the ball in their matches but have struggled to create a wealth of chances.

This should be a tightly-contested affair with both teams keen to make a fast start. There isn’t a great deal to separate these two and neither side will come into this match fearful of the other. It should be an exciting affair with tackles flying in.

Our first angle is match throws. Croatia’s matches at the tournament are averaging 49.33 throws per game. Their matches overall in 2022 are averaging just over 38 throws per game but the nature of tournament football has inflated their numbers drastically.

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Japan’s opening match against Germany saw 45 throws. Their matches with Spain and Costa Rica respectively didn’t see a lot of throws but the style of play adopted by those sides had a detrimental impact on the number of throws in the match. Over 40.5 throws in the match on bet365 looks a good addition to our bet builder for this one.

Japan’s matches in Qatar are averaging 34.67 tackles per game and I expect there to be a lot on Monday. Croatia’s matches at the tournament are averaging 33.67 tackles per game and we should see a lot of tackles late in the match if one of these sides is chasing the game.

Both of these team’s matches in 2022 are averaging over 30 tackles per game. Japan’s side features a number of technically gifted players. They have used a couple of different formations so far but whatever shape they go with, they will be able to force a good amount of tackles from their opponents.

For the longer odds bet, we are taking the same angles as the main bet but with increased lines. This bet landed in Japan’s openers against Germany and has every chance of doing so again.

40 or more tackles has landed in 2 of Japan’s games and 1 of Croatia’s. 46 throws has landed in 2 of Croatia’s matches so far. 

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