Italy vs. England Betting Tips: Best bets as the Three Lions travel to Milan

Live on Channel 4, Italy host England in this Nations League group stage fixture at the San Siro Stadium this Friday at 7.45pm. After going up against each other in the European Championship final last year, these two sides met each other again in the Nations League this year in June in an uneventful 0-0 draw. England can not possibly qualify for the finals of the Nations League as they sit bottom of the group with just 2 points after 4 games whereas Italy still have an outside chance of making the top spot as they sit 2pts off the leaders Hungary. The bottom team in the group gets relegated to League B and so if England fail to win, they will be relegated.

The circumstances mean this game will be of immense significance for both teams which could turn this into a feisty affair. England are coming off the back of a humiliating 4-0 defeat at Wembley against Hungary while Italy were hammered 5-2 by Germany in their last outing so both teams will be looking to redeem themselves. Their last 4 head to head meetings have ended in draws which goes to show there has not been much to separate these two top footballing nations and we expect another close game this Friday.

A hugely significant Nations League clash awaits us and as usual, I have you covered with 2 of my best betting angles for this game included in the preview below

Team News:

Marco Verratti, Lorenzo Pellegrini & Matteo Politano are out for Italy.

Kalvin Phillips & Jordan Pickford are out for England while Kyle Walker & Jordan Henderson are doubtful.

Italy possible starting lineup:

Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Bonucci, Emerson; Barella, Tonali, Jorginho; Gnonto, Immobile, Grifo

England possible starting lineup:

Ramsdale; James, Tomori, Maguire; Trippier, Rice, Bellingham, Chilwell; Sterling, Kane, Foden

- Under 4 goals in the match for both teams combined
- Raheem Sterling Over 0.5 shots in the match
- Over 2 cards in the match for both teams combined

Three out of four games involving Italy in the Nations League have gone under 4 goals. The same stat also applies to England as they have also seen less than four goals in three of their four Nations League games. These two sides have met each other a total of seven times and have never seen more than 3 goals. Their head to head meeting in the Nations League group stages in June ended in a 0-0 draw as well. All the stats point towards another low scoring encounter, which makes our first selection of the Bet Builder a very solid one. 

Raheem Sterling has been in stellar form for his new club Chelsea, top scoring with four goals in eight appearances. He is averaging 1.8 shots per game in the premier league and has had at least 1 shot in every single Nations League game so far. 

As for the cards, this is a game of immense importance as England need a win to avoid relegation while Italy need a result to help them qualify for the finals. Due to this, we should expect to see plenty of tackles flying in by both teams. There were 5 cards in the reverse fixture in the group stages and with a referee who is averaging 6 cards per game this season (Jesus Gil Manzano), we should be able to clear the “Over 2 cards' line. Combining these three selections gives us a solid bet builder @ 4/5 and I am happy to stake 1pt on that as our main bet for this game.

Three of their last four head to head meetings have ended in 1-1 draws. The 4th game ended in a 0-0 draw and our correct score bet will be covered by bet365’s bore draw rule which gives us a refund in case there are no goals scored in the game. Considering that, 5/1 looks a decent price for a 1-1 scoreline and I am happy to stake a small 0.25pt on that as our 2nd bet for this game.
 

Best of luck if you follow these selections. Please always gamble responsibly.