Inter Milan vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips: Back Bukayo Saka on San Siro

Gameweek four of the Champions League is upon us as Inter Milan host Arsenal at the iconic San Siro on Wednesday night. Matthew O’Regan previews the games with bets at 9/10 and 23/20.

We are now approaching the halfway mark of the Champions League group stages, and Arsenal travel to Italy again, this time to face Inter Milan.  

The Gunners’ last trip to Italy ended in a bore draw in Bergamo against Atalanta, and you feel they would welcome a similar result on Wednesday.  

Arsenal currently sit fifth in the Premier League after away losses without scoring against Bournemouth and Newcastle, with a 2-2 home draw against Liverpool sandwiched in between.  

In the Champions League, they sit ninth after not conceding. An away draw at Atalanta was followed up by home wins against PSG (2-0) and Shakhtar Donetsk (1-0). They remain without Kieran Tierney, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori and captain Martin Ødegaard for Wednesday’s match. 

Inter Milan sit in second place in the Serie A, one point behind leaders Napoli. Their 25 goals scored is the second most in the league, while their 13 conceded may worry Simone Inzaghi. 

Still, Internazionale are unbeaten in eight games since their derby-day last-gasp defeat to AC.

Like Arsenal, Inter are unbeaten in this year’s Champions League without conceding, having held Manchester City to a 0-0 draw and defeated Red Star Belgrade (4-0) and Young Boys (0-1). 

Inzaghi doesn’t have many injuries to contend with. Only Carlos Augusto and Kristjan Asllani are expected to miss out. 

Serie A teams have become renowned for their tendency to play a five-at-the-back formation, and Inter Milan are no different. Benjamin Pavard, Stefan De Vrij and Alessandro Bastoni play as a back three in front of Yann Sommer, allowing marauding wing-backs Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries to join the attack.  

The wing-back combination already has five goal contributions between them this season, but their attacking prowess often leaves the back three more exposed. Bastoni has established himself as one of the best centre-backs in the world and does an excellent job of covering for Dimarco if the 26-year-old is out of position.  

Bastoni is averaging 1.74 fouls per 90 in the League and 2.54 per 90 in the Champions League. On Wednesday, he will be tasked with stopping the impressive Bukayo Saka, who has drawn 2.44 fouls per 90, including a mammoth six in the recent defeat at Newcastle. 

After a stint at right back, Thomas Partey is likely to be restored to his usual central midfield position. The Ghanaian is averaging 1.50 fouls per 90. He should be involved in an intriguing midfield battle with Nicola Barella, who has been fouled in his last five starts, averaging 1.54 fouls drawn per 90.

Bukayo Saka is now firmly Arsenal’s poster boy after an impressive six seasons in the first team by the age of 23. While Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard and Raheem Sterling have struggled for form this season, Saka has been consistent, registering 11 goal contributions in just 11 starts.  

He is averaging 3.16 shots and 1.26 shots on target per 90 across all competitions, landing this bet in 9/11 starts in all competitions. 

There is a significant upturn in Inter’s shots conceded in the Champions League, conceding an average of 17.66 across the three games. If Arsenal get close to this number, expect Saka to be at the forefront of it.

Inter Milan vs Arsenal Lineups

The starting lineups for Inter Milan vs Arsenal will be displayed in the graphic below once the team news has been announced.