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Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig Tips: Bookings on the cards up against Werner and co

Sebastian Rudy is amongst the Hoffenheim players we like in the bookings market
Sebastian Rudy is amongst the Hoffenheim players we like in the bookings market

The Bundesliga continues on Friday night as Red Bull Leipzig look to get back to winning ways on the road to Hoffenheim.

The bookies have RBL as short as 2/5 to win the match, that's an implied probability of over 70% that Julian Nagelsmann's side take all three points. You'd have to be a brave soul to back Leipzig at those prices given they've dropped points against Freiburg, Hertha Berlin and at home to bottom side Paderborn last weekend.

Hoffenheim have just the one defeat since the restart with two wins and two draws, but Friday's contest which is live on BT Sport at 19:30 is their first match against a team above them in the table. Hoffenheim are best priced 11/2 for the victory whilst the draw is a 4/1 chance.  

Benjamin Hubner of Hoffenheim and French defender Dayot Upamecano are both suspended following red cards last weekend, with Upcamecano in particular a blow for the visitors. Linked with a number of top clubs across Europe, the French U21 international is Leipzig's best defender and his absence could weaken a defence that has only kept one clean sheet in five since the return to football last month, bringing the BTTS in to play, at 1/2 with Bet365.

We've had a close look at the same game multi markets to bring your three football tips for Friday night's match.

Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig Match Odds
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Football Odds
Friday's Bundesliga Tip #1
Stefan Posch to be booked
Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
WIN PROB: 34.72%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
Why this Tip?
  • Nine bookings in 24 appearances
  • Averaging a booking every 2.4 games
  • Has a lethal RB strike force to deal with
Odds correct as of 2020-06-11 16:50 Odds subject to change.

The pair have both had two red cards in their five matches since the Bundesliga resumed, with both teams dropping points at the weekend in games where they had a red card when going off favourites in the match.

Hoffenheim have picked up 62 cards this season in the league, but despite the recent flurry of reds, RBL have only been shown 43, with Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund the only teams with a better disciplinary record.

Hoffenheim's chief offenders are Sebastian Rudy and Stefan Posch with nine cards apiece, nearly 30% of their team's totals and as you'd expect they're pretty short in the 'To be booked' market. Betfair make Posch just a 10/11 chance to pick up his 10th booking of the season, but there's some bigger prices if you shop around.

The Austrian has been picking up a booking every 2.4 games for Hoffenheim this season, which is over half a game less than Rudy who has played an extra five games for Die Kraichgauer. William Hill go 9/5 about him to be carded but Bet365 are the stand out price of 15/8 for the 23-year-old to be booked. Posch has played more minutes than Rudy since the league's restart and we're putting him forward as our best bet of the match.

The same game multi has been boosted to 13/2 from 5/1 for us by those good folks Betfair.

Friday's Bundesliga Tip #2
P Schick to have 2+ shots on target, C Nkunku to have 1+ shots on target & K Laimer to be booked
Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
WIN PROB: 13.33%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
Why this Tip?
  • Schick averaging four shots a game in last three games
  • Nkunku decent value to get a shot on target
  • Laimer giving away two fouls a match
Odds correct as of 2020-06-11 16:55 Odds subject to change.

RB Leipzig have been irresistible at times in attack this season, too hot to handle when knocking Spurs out of the Champions League which they're still contesting in the quarter-finals awaiting dates for the resumption of that competition.

Whilst attacker Timo Werner grabs the headlines, 25 goals from his 30 games in the league this season and set to sign for Chelsea in the summer, there's some alternative value to be had in the goalscoring market.

Teammate Patrik Schick has been prolific since returning to the team three games ago, scoring in each of his three matches but also out-shooting Werner in the process.

Since the restart to the season, Schick has been averaging four shots a game opposed to Werner's 3.6 and in the last three games where Schick has started the match, he's outshot Werner 12-8, scoring in his last three games. 

As you'd expect, Werner is the favourite in both the goalscoring markets and the shots on target betting. At 4/9 to have two or more shots in target, Schick is a 4/6 shot in the same market and an attractive looking 11/10 to score anytime.

Christopher Nkunku is another of the RB forward line who goes under the radar in the shots market. Like Schick he's averaging over a shot on target in the last five matches, six in total and can be backed at 4/9 to get another on Friday.

In the bookings market for RBL, Konrad Laimer has picked up six bookings this season and looks good value to add to that at 9/5. The Austrian came off the bench at the weekend but with assists in each of his last three games he's likely to start on Friday night with Upacemanu absent.

Friday's Bundesliga Tip #3
Werner to score, Rudy to be carded & Skov & Baumgarner each to have 1+ shots on target
Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
WIN PROB: 6.67%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
Why this Tip?
  • Werner on fire in front of goal
  • Rudy has picked up nine yellow cards this season
  • Skov averages two shots per game and is on set pieces for Hoffenheim
  • Baumgarner averages over two shots per game and has scored twice in his last three games
Odds correct as of 2020-06-11 18:50 Odds subject to change.

We can't cover an Red Bull Leipzig and not involve Timo Werner in our best bets, so four our final tip Werner to score anytime is the lynchpin.

Just five goals behind Robert Lewandowski at the top of the scorer charts in Germany, Werner has added four goals to his tally since the restart including a hat-trick and can close the gap on the Pole playing the day before Bayern.

Add into a mix the aforementioned Sebastian Rudy to pick up a booking for Hoffenheim. The right back will have a potential torrid time against the pace of RB's outside forwards and he's another lock-in for a booking.

When it comes to shots for Hoffenheim, we come to a bit of a conundrum. Croatian forward Andrej Kramaric has some really strong shot data, registering over two shots per game and scoring seven times in his 15 appearances this season from just 18 shots. He's a 4/11 shot with Paddy Power to register a shot on target on Friday and 11/5 to score anytime. The crux here is the Croat is still being nursed back to fitness following injury and came on as a substitute in the 2-2 draw against Dusseldorf a week ago, so we're going to swerve that particular bet and plumb for teammate Robert Skov who is 5/6 to get one or more shots on target.

The Dane is a versatile player who has played all over the park for Hoffenheim, at full back and centre forward, the key here is he takes set pieces and has notched four times this season and is an ever present in the Hoff lineup. Averaging two shots a game he looks a decent option at the prices.

This same game multi has also been boosted from 10/1 to 14/1 by Paddy Power.

As always, enjoy the match and only bet what you can afford to lose. Good luck!

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