Fulham vs. Chelsea Betting Tips: Palhinha Overpriced in the Shots Market
Premier League punters have a West London Derby on the cards on Thursday with Fulham taking on Chelsea at Craven Cottage. We’ve previewed the game and picked out two data-driven tips that we like the look of.
It’s been an excellent season so far for Fulham who sit seventh in the standings. It’s three wins on the bounce in the league for The Cottagers who also advanced to the fourth round of the FA Cup on Saturday with a 2-0 away win at Hull. Marco Silva’s side are three places above Chelsea and can move above Liverpool with a win here on Thursday.
Things seem to be going from bad to worse at Chelsea with the players looking reluctant to embrace the new manager’s tactics. The Blues have won just two of their last nine matches in all competitions with Graham Potter now the 4/1 second favourite to be the next top-flight manager to leave their post.
Fulham vs Chelsea Tips
Our first bet from Craven Cottage comes via the bet365 Bet Builder where we are backing both teams to score and Fulham striker Carlos Vinicius Over 0.5 Shots on Target at 7/4.
Fulham have scored in their last five league matches and when looking at both teams to score stats this season they hold the highest percentage of matches with both teams finding the net (13/18). Out of the nine matches at home this season for Fulham, seven have featured both teams scoring (78%).
Chelsea need to improve their form rapidly if they are to stand any chance of reaching the Champions League places this season. Potter’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions and both teams getting on the scoresheet looks a wise play here on Thursday.
With Aleksandar Mitrovic suspended for this West London derby, Fulham forward Carlos Vinicus should come into the side. On his last Premier League start, the Brazilian registered two shots on target, letting off three shots in total against Manchester United. Vinicius to have 1+ shot on target is priced at 2/5 with Paddy Power, so taking the 5/6 on show with bet365 and combining it with both teams to score, pays a very backable 7/4,
Another player we like from the Shots on Target market is Fulham’s Joao Palhinha. BetVictor go 29/10 on 1+ shot on target for the midfielder, while others such as Sky Bet go much shorter at 7/4.
It’s interesting to see that 83% of Palhinha’s shots on target this season have come in home matches. In total he has cleared the 1+ line in five of his eight appearances at Craven Cottage and with this in mind, 29/10 looks too big to do so against an out of form Chelsea side.
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