Football Accumulator Tips: Muller to rack up the shots in Munich

The Champions League returns once again this week for the second legs of the quarter-final ties.Tuesday sees Bayern Munich take on Villarreal at the Allianz and Chelsea travel to Spain to take on Real Madrid. Our man @AnthonyEadson has provided us with a data-driven double that he likes the look of for the evening’s procedures. 

German juggernauts Bayern have left themselves plenty of work to do in their game at home to Villarreal. After being beaten 1-0 away in the first leg, Bayern must score at least twice here to avoid going to extra-time. Despite this, Julian Nagelsmann’s side remain 5/1 to turn this tie around and go on to taste European glory this season, behind only Manchester City (7/4) and Liverpool (15/8) in the outright betting. 

Chelsea also face an uphill battle in the second half of their two-legged tie with Real Madrid. The Blues will have been really disappointed to go down 3-1 to Real at Stamford Bridge a week ago in a game where Karim Benzema grabbed a memorable hat-trick. After a 6-0 demolition job away at Southampton at the weekend, Thomas Tuchel’s men can be backed at 8/1 to advance to the semi finals.

After a successful two point play on Sunday with Christian Eriksen clearing the over 1.5 line, I’m sticking with the shots markets with a double across Tuesday’s two Champions League fixtures. I’m backing both Thomas Muller and Mason Mount to have over 1.5 shots in their matches, which at the time of writing is available at 8/5 with bet365. I’d certainly be going with 365 considering this same double is priced at just 1/5 with both Betfair and Paddy Power.

Thomas Muller to have over 1.5 shots is the first half of this double. In the first leg Bayern racked up 22 attempts and I expect them to clear that here with hopefully Muller getting in on the action. The emphasis for the hosts is on goals here and despite Villarreal having one of the most stubborn defences in European football, I think Bayern will find a way to break them down.

Thomas Muller already has four Champions League goals to his name this season and is a player who seems to come alive in the latter stages of the tournament, scoring a remarkable 26 goals in the knockout phase in his career. Only Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo can better those numbers and having a look back at Muller’s recent shot data and he has registered over 1.5 shots in 10 of his last 14 starts for Bayern.

I’ll also be including Mason Mount to record over 1.5 shots on Tuesday evening as Chelsea take on Real Madrid. After two worrying home losses to Brentford (1-4) and Real Madrid (1-3), Chelsea got back to winning ways with an emphatic 6-0 win at Southampton on Saturday with Mount bagging himself a brace. They will have to be at their very best if they are to trouble Real Madrid in their own backyard, but after the positive showing away from home at the weekend I’m fancying them to make a good go of it.

In the first leg between this pair, Mason Mount registered three shots which now means he has cleared the 1.5 shots line in all of his last six starts for Chelsea. A potential free-kick taker, Mount averages 2.1 shots per game in the league this season and with the visitors needing to attack in this second leg I think Mount to once again have over 1.5 shots, looks an attractive proposition. 

With Betfair going just 1/5 on this same double it highlights the excellent price I feel we are getting from bet365 here and it would be no surprise to see it go off a little shorter. Best of luck to anyone following.

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