European Football Tips: Kick off your weekend with a 160/1 chance in Seville
We returned to winning ways last week as my NAP- Dries Mertens to have two shots on target at 13/10- sailed in. I'm hoping to kick on and have explained my favourite fancies from Europe's cynosures below. This week's piece features some enticing angles priced at; 2/, 10/3 and 160/1!
My NAP comes via a fixture at the helm of Germany as top of the table Bayern Munich welcome second RB Leipzig for a Bundesliga bout on Saturday evening. The bookies have Bayern as clear favourites at around 9/25 thus giving them an expected chance of victory of 74%, however, an evening with The Bavarians is a challenge that Julian Nagelsmann has relished in games gone by.
In these sides last six Bundesliga games, they have drawn four, and either side has won one. You would also have to go back to March 2017 to find a game that featured more than three goals with the majority of the last eight clashes being cagey and closely contested affairs. Therefore, I certainly wouldn't want to get Bayern on side at the prices available nor would I favour goals in this one.
My next best selection is from Ligue One's curtain raiser on Sunday which sees Lille welcome Monaco. The pick of bunch in France pits two sides only separated by a point against each other at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Christophe Galtier's men will be on cloud nine following a late turn around midweek vs Sparta Prague. Les Dogues were trailing going into the closing stages but two late goals from substitute Burak Yilmaz saw them clinch victory in dramatic fashion and secure their place in the knockout stages. My selection for this one comes via Les Monegasques talisman Wissam Ben Yedder who looks poised to start following a stint on the sidelines. The French international is generously priced with Betfair and Paddy Power.
My longshot comes courtesy of Sevilla's game with Real Madrid. Zinedine Zidane's men will be looking to bounce back from successive defeats but may have to do so without some key men. Eden Hazard and Federico Valverde will defiantly miss the trip to Andalusia whilst Sergio Ramos and Dani Carvajal are unlikely to feature.
Prior to their midweek drubbing, Sevilla had been in fine fettle winning five of their last five fixtures in all competitions. The money must have been coming for the hosts as their price has shortened since the markets opened, therefore punters must be expecting them to bounce back.
- Angelino RB Leipzig's top goalscorer with six goals.
- He's registered at least a shot in 13/14 of the games he played.
- He's had a shot on target in 75% of his Bundesliga starts.
Given how unjustly short Bayern are, it has created a bit of scope for value in RB Leipzig's player prop markets and one price has caught my eye is Angelino to have a shot on target which is 2/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power.
Despite featuring largely at left wing back this campaign, the Spaniard currently tops RBL's goalscorer list in all competitions with six. Domestically, he ranks tenth on four which puts him level with Bayern's ever present Thomas Muller.
In the Bundesliga, Angelino has averaged 2.1 shots per game which puts him third behind Dani Olmo (2.3) and Yussuf Poulsen (2.6). Staggeringly, he has only failed to register a shot in one of the 14 games he has featured in and has hit the target a total of eleven times!
As I write this, Ladbrokes are the only other bookmakers to have priced this market. They originally had Angelino at 3/1 to have a SoT but this has since gone into evens. At 2/1 with Betfair, the implied probability of this landing is just 33.3%, however, this is a bet that has already won in 75% of Angelino's Bundesliga appearances this season!
It is also worth noting that RBL rank first for shots per game- averaging 16.6- and Bayern have conceded marginally more shots from the left flank (20%) than the right (18%). Only Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim have conceded a fewer percentage of shots from central areas that Bayern's 63% which bodes well for this selection.
- Only two players have scored more than Ben Yedder in the league this season.
- In his last seven starts he's averaged 3.3 SpG and 70% of those shots have being goal-bound!
- Ladbrokes have him considerably shorter at 19/10.
Monaco's frontman missed their game with PSG due to COVID and was only granted a spot on the bench in their last game vs Nimes. However, ASM's number nine will likely feature from the off on Sunday.
With six goals to his name, only Kylian Mbappe and Boulaye Dia have found the net more times then Ben Yedder this season. He also has the fifth highest shots per game average in the league with 2.7! In his last seven starts, he's scored six, averaged 3.3 SpG and found the target eight times; of those 23 shots, 70% have being goal-bound! It is also worth considering that only Lyon (16.7) have averaged more shots per game than Monaco.
Betfair and Paddy Power's price of 10/3 for him to have two shots on target is considerably longer than the next best price of 19/10 with Ladbrokes.
- Rakitic; ex-Barcelona, carded in 2/7 starts and considerably shorter elsewhere.
- In his last 5 apps, Navas has had 2Y and a straight red card!
- Kounde averages 1.2 SpG and scored in his penultimate league start.
Jose Maria Sanchez has the whistle for this one and he has averaged five yellows and 0.33 red cards per game in La Liga this season. Therefore, I was keen to get some player cards on side and think Rakitic and Navas' prices represent some value.
Rakitic has been carded in 29% of his league starts this season, elsewhere he is as short as 23/10 for a card but Betfair have him priced at 7/2. He averages 1.3 tackles and 0.9 fouls per game and the fact that he was previously a Barcelona player will not hurt this angle either.
My other fancy in the card market is Jesus Navas, Sevilla's second most carded player with three to his name. In his last five games, Navas has received two yellows and a straight red! 4/1 with Betfair seems especially huge given that he is just 13/8 with Bet365!
I also like the look of a Jules Kounde shot on target at 5/1 with Betfair, this is considerably shorter with Ladbrokes. Kounde has averaged 1.2 shots per game in La Liga this season, which ranks his fourth for Sevilla. The Frenchman has had a total of 12 shots in his eight starts and scored in his penultimate league game, he also registered three shots vs Barcelona.
You cannot underestimate the presence that Sergio Ramos has in both boxes. Sevilla's former centre back is expected to miss Sunday's games which will likely increase Real Madrid vulnerability from set pieces and corners.
Best of luck if you are backing any of these and please gamble responsibly.
