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European Football Tips: The stage is set for an explosive Der Klassiker

European Football Tips: Jimmy the Punt is backing Kimmich to pick up a booking against Dortmund
European Football Tips: Jimmy the Punt is backing Kimmich to pick up a booking against Dortmund

We couldn't have asked for a better start last week as my NAP in my debut BettingOdds.com piece landed at 7/4. Gonzalez, the player in question, registered two shots on target during his second half cameo meaning those of you who took the chunky 10/1 on offer for two also got paid out. 

I'm delving into the shots on target market once again this weekend via the most enticing games on the continent. I've have found two angles I like at 13/10 and a longshot at 150/1 that is more than worth a dabble. 

NAP: Federico Valverde - Shot on Target v Valencia @ 13/10 with Betfair 

The Uruguayan midfielder has been in fine fettle this campaign - scoring two in his last two league appearances, clearly enjoying the slightly more attacking freedom he has been warranted by Zidane. 

In his five league starts, Valverde has registered a shot on target in four, the only time he failed to do so he had a goal bound shot blocked. This season, he has averaged 0.78 SoT per 90 minutes played with 57.1% of his efforts hitting the target. 

Real Madrid have averaged 13.9 shots per game, with a staggering 76% of those coming from central areas and in their last two La Liga fixtures, Los Blancos have registered a total of 14 SoT. 

Real Mardrid face a Valencia side that have conceded 39 shots on target during their last five league games, 39% of them coming from opposition players playing in the middle of the park! 

Next Best: Luis Alberto - Shot on Target v Juventus @ 13/10 with Betfair

Sunday morning sees a mouthwatering fixture in Serie A as Lazio welcome Juventus to the Stadio Olimpico and it's one of the hosts central midfielders that has caught my eye. 

It looks like Luis Alberto has been given the all clear to feature in this one following his stint on the sidelines due to COVID. The Spanish midfielder should slot straight back into the Biancocelesti's midfield. 

This season only Ciro Immobile (3.2) has a higher SpG then Alberto's average of 2.40. He's registered four SoT in five league appearances, averaging 0.89 per 90 minutes. In all competitions, 69% of his efforts have been goal bound. 

Today's football tips

I think his price of 13/10 with Betfair represents value for two reasons. The first been that he is only 8/11 with Ladbrokes and the last being his price in comparison to Milinkovic-Savic, Lazio's other more advanced central midfielder.

The latter is only 8/15 to register an shot on target but both players have identical shooting statistical figures from this season. Alberto has a slightly higher SpG but the Serbian pips him in terms of SoT/90 (1.10). However, it is worth noting that over a larger sample size last season, Alberto had an SoT/90 average of 0.78 where-as Milinkovic-Savic averaged 0.68. 

Longshot: Dortmund v Bayern - Haaland and Gnabry 2 SoT; Dahoud and Kimmich Booked @ 150/1 with Betfair 

Of Bayern's players to play four or more league games, Gnabry has the second largest SoT/90 averaged with 1.56, registering at least two shots on target in 60% of his league appearances. 

This season Haaland has registered two or more shots on target in nine of his 14 appearances for club and country. 

Dahoud is yet to be booking in his two league starts this season but the only card he received last season came when playing against FCB. Prior to that he picked up a card in 25% of the games he started during the 18/19 season.

Kimmich has been booked in two of his five starts in the Bundesliga this season and last season he had his name taken when the sides met at the Allianz Arena.

Jimmy the Punt: Valenica v Real Madrid
Sun 20:00
Federico Valverde 1+ SoT
  • In his five league starts, Valverde has registered a shot on target in four
Odds correct as of 2020-11-06 16:15 Odds subject to change.
Jimmy the Punt: Lazio v Juventus
Sun 11:30
Luis Alberto 1+ SoT
  • This season only Ciro Immobile (3.2) has a higher SpG then Alberto's average of 2.40
Odds correct as of 2020-11-06 16:15 Odds subject to change.
Jimmy the Punt: Dortmund v Bayern
Sat 17:30
Haaland and Gnabry 2 SoT; Dahoud and Kimmich Booked
  • Of Bayern's players to play four or more league games, Gnabry has the second largest SoT/90 averaged with 1.56, registering at least two shots on target in 60% of his league appearances
  • This season Haaland has registered two or more shots on target in nine of his 14 appearances for club and country
  • Kimmich has been booked in two of his five starts in the Bundesliga this season
Odds correct as of 2020-11-06 16:20 Odds subject to change.
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