England vs Ireland Prediction, Odds and Lineups: Back this 16/1 double at Wembley

England face the Republic of Ireland at Wembley tonight in their sixth and final Nations League fixture with the hosts seeking the win that will see them gain promotion back to UEFA Nations League A.

Matthew O’Regan previews the game with his best bets at 5/4 and 16/1.

England are one win away from promotion to Nations League A after a fine 0-3 in the Greek capital. Lee Carsley is managing his last game before handing the reins to Thomas Tuchel. A 1-2 home loss to Greece damaged an otherwise flawless Nations League campaign, but The Three Lions won’t mind one bit if they are to defeat rivals Ireland on Sunday. 

Harry Kane lambasted the nine players who pulled out of the squad with minor injuries but was rested himself. He is, however, expected to start on Sunday.  

Ireland defeated Finland 1-0 to secure their survival and know the game against England is a throw-away. However, the passionate Ireland support will not see it this way and will be desperate for a spirited performance from the Boys in Green.  

The most pleasing aspect of their victory over Finland was the goalscoring return of young prodigy Evan Ferguson, who has had a tough year or so with injuries and a lack of minutes. His header on the brink of half-time will fill him with confidence going into future Ireland matches.

In the dominant win against Greece, several key attacking players such as Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Harry Kane and Phil Foden did not start, with Jude Bellingham the exception.  

The 21-year-old flourished with his new-found attacking freedom in the ’10 role’ hitting the post with both his shots. An early yellow card for dissent meant he had to tread carefully and did not commit a foul, but he was still a target for the Greek midfield, winning four fouls in a complete performance.  

Bellingham is an all-action midfielder who contributes at both ends of the pitch. Thursday night was the third England start in a row that he has had four foul involvements, having 4,4 and 6 in this time. In an England shirt, he is averaging 3.51 foul involvements per 90.  

In his last 50 games for Real Madrid, Bellingham averages 3.42 foul involvements per 90, so he looks good value for four against a cynical Ireland side. 

Ireland have achieved what they have set out to do in this campaign by securing survival with a game to spare, but there is still some criticism from the Irish faithful of their side’s pragmatism. While they have had 17 shots on target from their five games, 13 of these have come in the two games against lowly Finland.  In the games against leaders England and Greece, Ireland have had 1,1 and 2 shots on target.  

England have also kept it tight at the back, conceding just 12 shots on target in five games, with five of these coming away at Greece. In fact, in their two home games, the Three Lions have conceded just three shots on target.  With the difference in quality between the two nations, England should control the game, leaving Ireland minimal attacking opportunities. 

Conor Gallagher was given his first England start since being hauled off at halftime in the 0-0 draw with Slovenia in the Euros. The Atletico Madrid midfielder impressed with his commitment and endeavour but was also booked for delaying the restart after just 11 minutes. It was the midfielder’s second yellow since the Euros in a surprisingly well-disciplined season.  

Last season as captain of his boyhood club, Chelsea, Gallagher averaged 2.35 fouls per 90 and was booked nine times. The season before, he was booked in 13 of his 22 starts. A lower yellow card tally last season may be due to his increased responsibility as Chelsea captain. Now free from the shackles of captaincy, we may see Gallagher revert to his previous ill-discipline.