England vs. Italy Predictions: Grealish a backable price in the shots and assist markets

In a repeat of the Euro 2020 final, England will take on Italy on Saturday, this time in the UEFA Nations League. We’ve got @AnthonyEadson on hand to provide us with his best bets for the action, with three selections that range from 10/11 to 45/1. 

England remain winless on Channel 4 after defeat to Hungary and a draw with Germany in their two League A Group 3 matches in the Nations League. For the majority of Tuesday’s game with Germany, England looked relatively flat and it took until some substitutes in the second half for them to really pose a serious threat in-front of goal. 

Both Jack Grealish and Jarrod Bowen made an impact when being introduced in that match and are both expected to be handed places in the starting line-up on Saturday for the game that will be played at Molineux. After hints from Gareth Southgate after Tuesday’s stalemate in Munich, it’s also expected that Tammy Abraham may get a chance to impress from the off, with Kane set to return for the game with Hungary. 

Italy manager Roberto Mancini fielded a youthful XI in their opener against Germany, where his young crop performed well to take a point. The former Manchester City boss then went with a more experienced side in midweek where they scraped past the Hungary XI. That win now puts them top of the group but they head into this match with England as the outsiders, priced at 7/2 to claim all three points after just 4 wins in their last 12 matches since lifting the Euros. 

Leonardo Bonucci is expected to be named in the starting line-up after being an unused substitute against Hungary. Italy’s squad does not contain some of their star names and a handful are sidelined through injury including Moise Kean, Domenico Berardi and Nicolo Zaniolo. 

The first selection I’m highlighting here is for Jack Grealish to have over 1.5 shots in the match. Available at 10/11 with bet365, or even money with Coral, Jack Grealish looks a nice price here to have at least two attempts in the match. Often an impact substitute for England in many of their matches, Grealish is expected to start this game and I think he’ll play with a little more freedom than what he does at times for Manchester City where he is a little scared of losing the ball, in Pep’s particular system. 

Having a look back at the former Aston Villa man’s figures from the most recent season and in his last 18 starts for Manchester City he has registered 2+ shots in 12 of those. Across those 18 matches, Grealish averages 2.33 shots per game and with this in mind I think there’s a strong case to be made for him to have 2 or more against a weakened Italy side on home soil.

Next up I’m siding with Italy left-back Leonardo Spinazzola to have an assist anytime in the match. One of the players of the tournament at last summer’s European Championships, Spinazzola was desperately unfortunate to tear his achilles tendon in the quarter-finals with an injury that would keep him out of action for nine months. 

The 29-year-old was handed his first International start since returning from that injury in midweek and provided an assist for Nicolo Barella’s opener on the half hour mark. Spinazzola has registered an assist in three of his last five starts for Italy and averaged over four shot creating actions per 90 minutes at Euro 2020.  At 8/1, with England failing to keep a clean sheet in both Nations League matches so far and expected to rotate in defence, this looks a bit too big a price.

I’ll also be having a bit of loose change on an anytime assist double with Leonardo Spinazzola and Jack Grealish both to have an assist in the match at an appealing 45/1. I’ve already made the case for the Italian above and when it comes to Grealish, since making his debut in 2020, he averages an impressive 0.49 assists per 90 minutes. 

In his England career Grealish has started 11 matches and has registered an assist in five of those. Both England and Italy’s matches so far in this Nations League group campaign have seen both teams find the net and I’ll be hoping that trend continues on Saturday with some sublime service from Spinazzola and Grealish to land this 45/1 longshot. 

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