Derby vs West Brom Odds: Back the Baggies to dominate today

Derby have fought valiantly this season, despite all of the obstacles they’ve faced, with the club being placed into administration in the summer. Wayne Rooney’s squad was thread bare when proceedings kicked off in August, but the team have managed to secure 5 victories in their 22 league matches (3 more than Barnsley, who sit one place above them). Ultimately, the points deductions have proven to be too much, and the team currently sit 18 points from safety.

West Brom are just 2 points off the automatic promotion places in the Championship, but they’ll be looking to make one of those top two spots their own in the second half of the season, in order to secure their return to England’s top flight. Their manager, Valerien Ismael, massively overperformed with Barnsley last season and the Baggies come into this fixture of a disappointing 0-0 draw with Ismael’s former employers.

When these two met earlier in the season, West Brom managed a staggering 25 attempts despite the game ending honours even. It’s this type of wastefulness that has left the Baggies just outside of the automatic spots.

West Brom average over 17 shots per game in their last 10 matches, and I see no reason why they won't hit a similar number here given the importance of the fixture in ensuring the team keeps pace with Bournemouth and Fulham.

Derby opponents average just under 6 corners per game in their last 10 matches, but all of their opponents aren’t at the same level as West Brom. The Baggies themselves average 7.5 corners per game in their last 10 matches.

The goals are the reason we are getting the big price we are here. As previously mentioned, Ismael's side have been extremely wasteful and average just under a goal per game in their last 10 matches. For this bet to land we need the promotion hopefuls to take their chances. According to Opta, West Brom have created 2, 5, 2, 1 and 2 big chances in their last 5 matches, so if the forwards have their shooting boots on here the bet stands a great chance with Derby destined for the drop.

West Brom had the better of Barnsley in terms of play, and they’ll be keen to showcase some cutting edge as they head to Derby. The Baggies had 16 shots in that match, but only managed to put 3 of them on target. Their opponents only had 3 shots overall. 

West Brom also average significantly more corners when they play opponents of a similar calibre to Derby. In their last 5 matches where they have been similarly priced, they average just under 9 corners per game and their opponents average just 4. Derby have only managed to win more corners than their opponents in 2 of their last 10 matches.