Derby vs Millwall Predictions: Rooney's side to win again
Wayne Rooney’s Derby County are making a real fist of trying to stay in the Championship despite the total of 21 points that they’ve been deducted. They welcome mid-table Millwall to Pride Park on Wednesday night but do so without the use of their best player so far this season…
Derby vs Millwall Tips
When looking at the stats for this game, I saw that Tom Lawrence topped the lists for Derby for goals and assists with only one player beating him out for cards. One day a Bet Builder featuring the Welsh International to get one of each will come in but his red card in the Peterborough win at the weekend means that the 28 year-old won’t be involved here.
That dramatic win on Saturday came with the home side taking no fewer than 25 shots in the game. Only five were on target but it gives a good indication that Derby are a decent side. They would be comfortably mid-table if it weren’t for the points deduction and they would actually sit exactly just one point behind Millwall.
The away side have failed to earn a single point away from The Den so far in this year. Defeats at Bristol City, Blackpool and Fulham have started their 2022 run in the Championship. So far this league season they’ve only won three times on the road with five draws and seven defeats. They face one of the better home sides in the division as Derby have the best record in front of their own fans in the bottom half of the table.
Looking at those statistics does nudge me towards the home win but I do worry about how well they will play without Tom Lawrence. He is such an important part of their attacking play but I’m going with the intangibles and backing the home win.
Derby are the team that need the result more and playing in front of their own fans will help. I have no doubt they will create a great atmosphere coming off the back of that late 1-0 win on Saturday. I don’t think they run away with it but Millwall do not travel well so the 6/4 price on the home win seems like a value play.
If you like to push the boat out then I have put together a 9/1 Bet Builder that I think has better than the odds suggest chance of landing. Derby to win, over 4.5 cards and BTTS - No.
The referee - Jeremy Simpson - has given out over 4.5 cards in three of his previous four games and Millwall have failed to score in three of their past four. That 9/1 price gives an implied probability of 10% and I can see it being a better chance than that so I like the value this Bet Builder provides.
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