Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City Predictions: City to edge the Eagles via set pieces

Selhurst Park is the venue for Monday Night Football as Crystal Palace host Manchester City. 

Given the gulf in pedigree, it is no surprise to see that the visitors are clear favourites here priced at 3/10 with Bet365 to win. That is not to say it is unjust though as Pep Guardiola’s side have won 78% of their games when priced accordingly.

The good news for the red half of Manchester, the blue half of Merseyside and fans of a competitive season is that we have a title race on our hands. With Liverpool beating Brighton on Saturday, City go into this clash three points clear at the top of the table meaning there is no room for error tonight. 

Guardiola could name the same side that thumped Manchester United in the Derby in their last league game. This would mean that Jack Grealish would keep his spot on the left, the £100m man put in one of his best performances to date against United. 

As for Crystal Palace, Patrick Vieira’s side come into this match in fine fettle having only lost one of their last eight games in all competitions. The Eagles currently sit eleven points clear of the drop in mid-table and are into the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.  

Crystal Palace have played nine games against the ‘big six’ this campaign. They beat City at the Etihad in the reverse and thrashed Nuno Espírito Santo’s Spurs 3-0 in September. During these fixtures, they have scored five goals and conceded 16 meaning the games have averaged 2.3 goals. 

This bet has landed in five of Vieira’s side fixtures against the big boys, that is 83% of their six defeats against them. 

As for City, this bet has clicked in 12 of their 22 domestic victories this campaign. On the road though, it has landed in 64% of their games. 

It is worth pointing out that they have scored five or more goals on eight occasions this season, and with them scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game, only Liverpool have scored more domestic goals than them. Therefore, they are more than capable of switching through the gears. 

This fixture pits one of the best sides in the division from set pieces against one of the worst. 

Manchester City have scored 13 goals directly from dead ball situations this season, a tally only Liverpool best (15). They also rank second for shots (130) and third for xG generated (11.2).

Crystal Palace have conceded 13 goals from them, a tally only Leeds best (14). They have shipped the seventh greatest xG (9.8) and the third most shots. 

John Stones may not be the most prolific of goalscoring defenders but he does have one league goal to his name this season- in eight starts- and averages 0.5 shots per game. Last season he did score four league goals, half of which game against the Eagles when they met at the Etihad. 

Based on the underlying data regarding set pieces, I also think that it is worth covering Aymeric Laporte to score. 

He already has three league goals to his name this season and averages 1.2 shots per game, that is almost as much as Bernardo Silva. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.