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Chelsea v Manchester City Tips: Jorginho to return with a booking in 90/1 long shot


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Thursday night sees Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City travel to Chelsea in a game that could see Liverpool crowned Champions if they win on Wednesday evening against Crystal Palace and then City drop points at The Bridge. Frank Lampard’s side have only played once since the restart with a 2-1 win away at Aston Villa, whereas City have played two scoring eight and not conceding in the process.

Having a look at the odds for the game BetVictor are a top price 17/5 implying a 22% probability percentage for a Chelsea win with the draw floating around the 3/1 mark with most firms. The Cityzens are 5/6 with Betfred for an away win and the game can be viewed live on BT Sport 1, kicking off at 20:15.

Both sides are set to make changes with Jorginho returning for Chelsea from a two game suspension whilst Hudson Odoi remains doubtful and defender Fikayo Tomori will miss out through injury. One certainty in football at the moment is that Pep Guardiola will make changes to his previous starting line up and with Ageuro hobbling off earlier in the week, Gabriel Jesus looks set to slot in. 

Chelsea v Manchester City Tip #1
Manchester City To Win & under 4.5 Goals
WIN PROB: 41.67%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
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Why this Tip?

Had landed in all of City's 8 wins in all competitions prior to Monday

Only one game since the resumption has seen over 4.5 goals

Odds correct as of 2020-06-24 17:00 Odds subject to change.

I’ve picked out three bets I like the look of for the game and the first of those is Manchester City to win and under 4.5 goals in the match at 7/5. Prior to Monday night’s demolition of Burnley, City's last eight wins in all competitions had included under 4.5 goals. I tipped up this selection in their first game after the restart against Arsenal and fancy it to land again tonight.

I don’t see Chelsea rolling over in the same way David Luiz and Arsenal did at the Etihad, but I do see this as another three points for Pep’s side. In both of their games so far since the restart City have looked efficient and have dominated with the strength and depth available in the squad being displayed more than ever.  

Having a look at the prices I was comfortable to have on side the 5/4 that Betfair were offering for a City win and under 4.5 goals. This feels a much more backable price than the 4/5 on offer for an outright win for City, however Betfair have given us a lovely little boost now taking a City Win and under 4.5 goals in the game to 7/5, a price that really catches the eye.

Chelsea v Manchester City Tip #2
Kevin De Bruyne & Marcos Alonso 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 14.29%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
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Why this Tip?

Alonso is averaging 1.8 shots per game and is a potential free-kick taker

De Bruyne is averaging 2.9 shots per game with 0.9 hitting the target

Odds correct as of 2020-06-24 17:00 Odds subject to change.

The next selection I’ve gone for, has been boosted from 5/1 into 6/1 by the good folk at Betfair and that’s for Kevin De Bruyne and Marcos Alonso both to have one shot on target. This one is mainly based around the Spaniard who I was incredibly surprised to see the price of 5/2 to have one shot on target, when even though he has only started 12 games this campaign Alonso is averaging 1.8 shots per game. Skybet have him as short as even money to have one shot on target and I feel this is a price that could tumble on Betfair. He’s a potential free-kick taker for Chelsea and should be looking to get forward against Benjamin Mendy who can at times forget his defensive duties. 

The second part of this 6/1 shout is Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne to have a shot on target. The Belgian started against Arsenal last week and was exceptional throughout getting on the scoresheet and landing three shots on target. After being benched for Monday’s game at home to Burnley, we see KDB coming back into the starting line up and will play a key role in Thursday’s clash. One of my favourite De Bruyne goals came at the Bridge a few years back where he unleashed a left foot rocket from the edge of the area hitting the back of the net with the most satisfying of sounds (see video below) and I’ll be hoping for more of the same tonight. Much of City’s patient build up is based around the edge of the area with them having more shots from outside the area than any other side this season. This may be a reason why someone like De Bruyne (2.9)  is averaging more shots per game than centre forward Gabriel Jesus (2.8) this season.  

Putting both those selections together of Alonso and De Bruyne to have a shot on target is 6/1 with Betfair which I’ll be having a bit of for Thursday night’s game.

Chelsea v Manchester City Tip #3
Abraham & Jesus to score, Jorginho & Rodrigo to be carded
WIN PROB: 1.10%
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
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Why this Tip?

Abraham has 13 goals in 23 league appearances this season 

Jesus should come in for Sergio Aguero and should get plenty of chances

Jorginho has been booked more times than any other in the Premier League this season (10)

Rodri has committed 10 more fouls than any other city player this season 

Odds correct as of 2020-06-24 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Finally it’s the long-shot at a massive 90/1 with PaddyPower. First up I’d like to point out that this is priced at 28/1 with Coral and 40/1 with Bet365 at the time of writing, and that is for Tammy Abraham and Gabriel Jesus to score, with Jorginho and Rodrigo to be carded. 

Pep roulette is in full swing at the moment when trying to predict who will start for Manchester City but one thing I’m pretty sure about is that Gabriel Jesus will come in for Sergio Aguero who came off against Burnley and is off to Barcelona for a further assessment. Frustration can sometimes get the better of the young Brazilian at times in front of goal at times, but I’m fancying him to get on the scoresheet at The Bridge in this battle of the blues. 

Tammy Abraham came off the bench in Chelsea’s first game since the resumption of the Premier League against Aston Villa on Sunday but we think Lampard will have him leading the line from the off in this big game. He’s impressed me all season with 13 goals in 23 appearances and with having the most shots per game of any player in the squad I’m fancying him to bag another and contribute to this Same Game Multi.

Jorginho is another who is expected to come back into the starting line up for this one, he’s been serving a two match suspension after picking up 10 yellow cards this season. That’s the most of anyone in the whole league and with pace and trickery of City’s attack I fancy him to leave a leg out and pick up yet another clumsy caution. 

Rounding off this 90/1 punt is Manchester City’s Rodrigo to be booked. He picked one up against Arsenal when coming off the bench late on and has more than any player in the City squad this campaign with 8. Further to that, since the start of the season he’s committed 37 fouls which is 10 more than anyone else in the entire squad. Add him into the mix to be cautioned and that rounds off at 90/1 for Abraham and Jesus to score, with Jorginho and Rodrigo to be carded. 

We know it can be a nightmare trying to predict starting line-ups at the moment but even if one of these players involved does not start in your Same Game Multi you can still get a 100% cashout on your stake with PaddyPower. This can vary from bookmaker to bookmaker so it’s sometimes worth checking beforehand if you will be able to get your stake back if a player does not start. 
Let’s hope for an enjoyable watch and as usual please always gamble responsibly, if you would like to see any of my replacement players for if those mentioned in this piece do not start, please give me a follow on Twitter @AnthonyEadson and I’ll have them on there in the hour before kick off.

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