Chelsea vs. Man City Betting Tips: Two data-driven bets from The Bridge

There is a heavyweight clash between Chelsea and Man City on Thursday. and Scott Thornton is on hand to preview the action and provide us with two data-driven plays.

Both of these teams come into this one on the back of 1-1 draws. Chelsea need to bounce back with a win to stay within reach of the Champions League places, while Man City need the 3 points to put the pressure on Arsenal. They are currently 8 points behind the league leaders. 

Graham Potter has had a tough start to life at Stamford Bridge. The London club aren’t famed for their patience when it comes to new managers. The former Brighton coach started with 3 league wins but Chelsea now have just 1 win in their last 7 Premier League matches. The Blues look set to spend big in January. Patience will be needed for Potter to change their fortunes in the coming months.

• Latest Premier League Relegation Odds

The goalscoring exploits of Erling Haaland have grabbed the headlines this season but City aren’t as efficient as last season. Pep Guardiola is gradually moulding his side to centre around an orthodox number 9. If the legendary, Catalan coach gets the balance right, City look set to challenge on all fronts this season.

It’s hard to look past the visitors here. City aren’t as flawless as they have been in the past. However, they should cause problems for a shaky Chelsea defence. The Blues haven’t kept a clean sheet in 5 Premier League games and they take on a record-chasing Haaland. The Norwegian has 21 league goals already. The current record for goals in a season is 34. 

There is usually a response when Man City drop points. Guardiola’s side haven’t dropped points in consecutive league games since 2020; a run that stretches 80 matches. The Citizens were poor after taking the lead against Everton so expect them to come out of the blocks quickly against Chelsea.

• Latest Premier League Winner Odds

Chelsea have lost the last 3 meetings with Man City and have failed to score in any of them. Scoring has been a problem for Potter’s side. They are averaging just 1.2 goals per game in the league.

Man City look a good price here. They have won their last 2 league games at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea look much weaker than they were for those encounters.

In those recent league meetings at Stamford Bridge, City have had 15 and 18 shots. Guardiola’s side are averaging 18.06 shots per game in the league this season. Liverpool are the only other ‘big-6’ side they have faced away from home this season. where they had 16 shots. I expect them to get a similar number here.

Man City have led at half time in both of their matches since the World Cup. A fast start for the visitors here could see the Stamford Bridge crowd get on their team’s back after a series of poor results. Guardiola will be keen to ensure his team kick on and score more if they can get an early lead.

City are averaging 17 shots per game in their last 5 league matches where they have been similarly priced to win. They have had 16 shots or more in 12 of their 16 league matches.

Did you know that bet365 pay your team out as a winner if they go 2 goals ahead at any time in the match (available on over 80 leagues and competitions, T&C's apply). Find out more on our bet365 offers page.