Chelsea vs. Brentford Betting Tips: Two stats-based bets for Saturday lunchtime kick-off

Chelsea host Brentford in Saturday's first Premier League match and they can close the gap on the European spots with a win. Scott Thornton has two stats-based punts for you to consider below...

Mauricio Pochettino hasn’t had the easiest of starts to life at Stamford Bridge but the team have performed well in recent weeks.

The Blues have a hefty injury list but Pochettino still has plenty of players available for this one. Players are slowly returning to fitness and the upward trend in performances continued against Arsenal despite the team being unable to hold on. Wesley Fofana, Ben Chilwell Romeo Lavia, Armando Broja and Christopher Nkunku are all absent for this encounter.

Like Chelsea, Brentford are also having to contend with a lot of injuries. Rico Henry, Kevin Schade, Josh Dasilva and Keane Lewis-Potter will all be absent for the fixture. The biggest miss for the Bees, however, is undoubtedly Ivan Toney. He was one of the hottest forwards in the league prior to his suspension. Thomas Frank will be counting down the days until his main goal threat returns.

Chelsea’s home record has been tremendously poor since the start of last season. Stamford Bridge was a fortress when Roman Abramovich resided over the football club but the first season under the new owners was nothing short of a disaster. The Blues have won just seven of their 24 home matches in the league since the start of last season. Brentford won 2-0 when they came to this ground in the last campaign.

There have been improvements as this season has gone on but Chelsea’s inability to hold on to their two-goal lead against Arsenal last weekend means that their only home win in the league was against Luton.

The Blues’ matches have seen an average of 2.44 goals per game, the 3rd fewest in the Premier League. Mauricio Pochettino doesn’t have an out-and-out goal scorer at his disposal and Chelsea have been wasteful at times so the first angle for our bet builder is under two goals in the first half of the match.

There has been one goal or less in the first half of the last five matches between these sides with an average of 0.2 goals. Chelsea’s league home matches so far this season are averaging 0.8 goals per first half and this betting angle has landed in four of the five. Two of those matches were 0-0 going into the break.

Brentford’s matches on the road have also seen very few first-half goals. The Bees have played four matches away from home in the league and two of those were 0-0 at HT. They took a 1-0 lead into the break in the other two.

I’m combining that angle with over 11.5 free kicks in the match for Chelsea. Pochettino’s side’s opponents are averaging 12.44 fouls per game, making them the 5th most fouled team in the Premier League. The Blues have had at least 12 free kicks in all of their league matches at Stamford Bridge so far this season.

Brentford are committing an average of 11.22 fouls per game and 12.75 per away game. However, this market also includes free kicks awarded for offsides. Chelsea’s opponents are averaging 2.22 offsides per game this season.

Our longshot for this match includes the same angles as the main bet, only with lower lines. I’m backing zero goals in what looks set to be a cagey first half of football. This angle has won in three of the last five head-to-heads.

The free kick line is also increased for this one. Chelsea had 15 free kicks in this fixture last season and have had over 13.5 in two of their five Premier League matches at home this campaign.