Championship Winner Prediction and Tips 2024/25: Scott Thornton's best bets from the second tier
Posted: 15:06 Wednesday 7th August 2024
The Championship begins this week and our man Scott Thornton has taken a look at the winner market and has provided us with his best bets.
Championship Predictions
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Leeds to Win the Championship
Winner – Leeds United
Leeds United suffered the agony of a playoff final defeat against Southampton last season but they are poised to return to the Premier League. Daniel Fake’s side produced some scintillating stuff and the manager has been entrusted with leading the team once again. He will be hoping his team cannot avoid the lottery of the playoffs this time around.
Farke’s side conceded the second-fewest goals in the Championship last season with their opponents averaging 0.90 goals per game. The underlying data suggests this was no fluke. The Whites had the lowest xGA in the division with 0.82. Leeds also boasted the fourth most lethal attack, scoring 1.73 goals per game on average. This was enough for them to amass 90 points over the course of the season, a total that would have been enough to secure automatic promotion in any of the six Championship seasons prior.
What was even more impressive was how the Leeds squad were able to transition to playing Farke’s style in such a short period. Leeds were possession-hungry under the new boss with an average of 59% per game and they looked like a well-oiled machine very early on. However, they had to wait until their fourth game of the season to record their first victory. Leeds will be hoping to make a faster start this term.
The departures of Archie Gray, Crysencio Summerville and Luis Sinisterra are a disappointment but Fark will feel he has all the tools necessary to lead the club back to the top tier of English football. Joe Rodon and Jayden Bogle are notable acquisitions. Bogle will help Leeds stretch the opposition by offering an attacking outlet from the right-back. Despite the loss of Summerville, Leeds still have a formidable attack. Georginio Rutter is a huge asset when the team don’t have possession. The striker is a willing runner and he is also adept at cutting off opposition passing lanes. The likes of Joel Piroe, Daniel James and Wilfried Gnonto, who was the subject of a £23m bid from Everton earlier in the window, are more than capable of filling the void left by Crysencio.
Leeds are the bookmaker’s favourites to win the Championship this season. The favourite has gone on to win the title in four of the last five campaigns so that bodes well for Daniel Farke’s side.
Best Price: 7/2 @ LiveScoreBet
Middlesbrough to Win the Championhip
Automatic Promotion – Middlesbrough
It’s rare that at least one of the sides that were relegated from the Premier League in the previous season don’t finish in the top two but that’s exactly what we are backing here. Burnley lost Vincent Kompany to Bayern Munich in what is seemingly a big blow to their hopes. Sheffield United endured a disastrous campaign in the top fight and the noise surrounding the club regarding a takeover hasn’t helped pre-season. Luton showed the most fight in the Premier League and have retained most of their key players. However, I’m backing them to finish below Middlesbrough this season.
Michael Carrick came in during the 22/23 season with Middlesbrough sitting 22nd in the Championship. He steered them to the playoffs in that campaign and hopes were high coming into the last season. They had to settle for an 8th-place finish but they lost key players such as Chuba Akpom, Ryan Giles and Cameron Archer ahead of the big kick-off. There were also a wealth of injury problems which meant that Carrick was unable to pick his best 11.
Boro scored the sixth most goals in the league last season with an average of 1.54 per game. Their average xG of 1.48 per game suggests this was no fluke. Carrick’s team finished the season with the fifth-highest expected points tally in the Championship. They lost just one of their last 12 matches in the league, picking up 25 points in the process. They look far more settled coming into this season and that sort of form should see them challenge at the top of the tree.
Best Price: 14/1 @ LiveScoreBet
Championship Winner Odds
Leeds United
Win Probability: 25%
Burnley
Win Probability: 11%
Middlesbrough
Win Probability: 8%
Sunderland
Win Probability: 6%
West Bromwich Albion
Win Probability: 6%
Sheffield United
Win Probability: 7%
Coventry
Win Probability: 3%
Luton
Win Probability: 2%
Peterborough
Win Probability: 3%
Watford
Win Probability: 2%
Each Way Terms
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