Champions League Tips: Back the big guns to bring their firepower
There are some huge fixtures this week in the Champions League's final group stage games. I've scoured tomorrow nights action and have explained my favourite fancies priced at 7/2 and 73/1 below.
Tuesday nights UCL action in Group H pits two of the greatest players in existence against one and other at the Camp Nou so expect a show! As we know from their time playing in La Liga together a bout between Messi and Ronaldo's clubs usually means the supremo's perform with a vengeance. Therefore, I'm keen to get the pair onside in the shots on target market and Betfair's boost presents us with a valuable opportunity.
Barcelona are the bookies favourites to win this, however, Juventus have won 43% of their games when priced at 23/10 despite the odds given them an implied probability of victory at just 30%.
My longshot comes via Rome as Lazio welcome Group F rivals Club Brugge to the Stadio Olimpico. It's an excitingly poised fixture; Club Brugge simply must win whilst hosts Lazio need a point but victory could see them top the group if Dortmund don't win at Zenit. Goals are very much in the ascendency in Italy!
- Messi has registered at least two SoT in 8/13 apps this season.
- Ronaldo has registered at least two SoT is 7/9.
- They have both accounted for just under a third of their sides shots in games they have featured in!
Cristiano Ronaldo missed the reverse fixture and his Juventus side succumbed to a shock 2-0 defeat, so I expect the Portuguese all time top goalscorer too be seeking vindication here. Unsurprisingly, Ronaldo tops the Old Lady's shot averages and only Zlatan Ibrahimovic has a higher shots per game than him in Serie A.
Ronaldo's shooting statistics are simply frighting... In competitive fixtures this season for club and country (Serie A, UCL and the Nations League) he has had a total of 59 shots in 13 appearances! He has had a total of 17 shots on target with two or more landing in seven of his nine appearances in Serie A and the Champions League! Perhaps the most staggering statistic, however, is that in the games he has featured in, he has being responsible for just under 1/3 of Juventus' shots and scored 47% of their league goals. Obviously, he'll be on shooting set piece and penalty duty as well tomorrow.
By Lionel Messi's standards, we haven't see him hit the goalscoring form that we're used too but he is still shooting just as much. He has a domestic SpG of 4.9 which is one more than La Liga's second greatest average (Luis Suarez with 3.9).
In 13 La Liga and UCL appearances he has attempted 66 shots- 15 in his last two games- which accounts 32% of Barcelona's total shots in those games. He's had a total of 34 SoT with two or more landing in seven of his last nine appearances and eight of his 13 this season (in La Liga or the UCL). Unbelievably, 53/66 (80%) have being goal-bound (on target or blocked)!
Ronaldo and Messi to each have two shots on target is 7/2 with Betfair, Ladbrokes have it at 2/1 and William Hill have priced it at evens! This does rank Betfair's boost the best price by some distance but it does not mean it is a dead cert... The main issue being that with this been somewhat a dead rubber contest both of the big gun's may be rested so I would advise anyone to wait until the teams are confirmed before backing this.
- Rabiot has been carded 6 times in 14 appearances this season.
- 7/2 with William Hill but only 2/1 elsewhere.
- He was booked in the reverse fixture.
Adrien Rabiot has averaged two fouls per game in the Champions League (first for Juve) and 1.4 in Serie A (third), accumulating five yellows and one red card in 14 appearances for Juventus this season. Tomorrow's game- line-ups permitting- will likely see him oppose Lionel Messi, he was tasked with this in the reverse fixture and had his name taken. I fancy history to repeat itself tomorrow in Spain.
Elsewhere, this bet is as short as 2/1 but at William Hill's price of 7/2 the implied probability of this landing is 22.2%. However, this season he has being booked in 35.7% of his games!
- Dennis has 2/4 in the UCL.
- Feres has been booked in 2/2 of his last Serie A games.
- Luis Alberto has been carded in 25% of his apps this season.
The visitors talisman, Emmanuel Dennis, has had his name taken in four of the ten games he has started, that's half of his UCL appearances! It is also worth noting he has committed the most fouls per game (2.8) for Club Brugge during their European campaign this season.
For Lazio, Mohamed Feres is amongst the front runners in terms of cards, fouls and tackles per game. He has been booked in both of his last two domestic appearances and with a total of four cards in all competitions only Akpa Akrpo has more yellows then him. Luis Alberto is one of the longest priced players for a card tomorrow. This season in the UCL he has averaged 2.7 tackles per game and picked up three yellows in 12 appearances. Usually in the thick of it he'll have his work cut out tomorrow against a pacey, tricky Brugge side.
As always with these long-shots, keep stake sensible and fun.
