Champions League Odds: What's the current state of play?
We’re now well into the group stages of the Champions League, with tonight’s games rounding off Matchweek 4.
Ronaldo’s late heroics against Atalanta yet again bailed out Manchester United and keeps them in contention for qualification to the knockout phases at the start of next year, while Chelsea recorded another win and clean sheet away at Swedish outfit Malmo.
Liverpool host Atletico Madrid this evening, just a fortnight after beating the Spaniards 3-2 at the Wanda Metropolitano, while Manchester City welcome Club Brugge to the Etihad having eased past the Belgian’s 5-1 in the reverse tie last month.
With a handful of games now complete for each side, the tournament is really starting to take shape and we’re starting to get a good idea as to which sides will likely be present in the last-16; who will tumble into the Europa League, and who will be eliminated from European competition altogether.
Who’s made a strong start in the race for the Golden Boot?
Alongside this, the race for the Golden Boot award is really beginning to heat up, with Robert Lewandowski once again leading the way with eight goals after four games following his sensational hat-trick against Benfica last night.
The Pole is now odds-on to clinch the competition’s top-scorer award for the second time in three years, and it’s certainly difficult to look past him at this point given how far Bayern are predicted to go in the tournament.
Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah is second-favourite in the market at 11/2. The Egyptian has five goals to his name so far, but has got a game in hand over Lewandowski with the Reds in action against Atletico this evening.
Considering his red-hot form, though, the value could well lie in Salah, especially as Liverpool are flying in Europe having won all three of their group games so far and look primed to make it through to the last-16 - and indeed beyond - this season.
You simply cannot rule out Mr Champions League himself, however, with Cristiano Ronaldo still reminding us all who is top dog in this competition with another late, great goal in Manchester United’s 2-2 draw with Atalanta, which made him the first Manchester United player to score in four consecutive Champions League matches since Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2003.
The Portuguese will be 37 by the time the knockout phase starts in February but is showing no signs of slowing down. Last night he scored his fourth and fifth UCL goals in Bergamo, spearheading United’s comeback on two occasions after they fell behind in both halves.
Ronaldo has seen his price in the top-scorer betting slashed from 14/1 to 8/1 after last night’s performance, although with United’s position in the knockout stage far from guaranteed, coupled with their less-than-convincing performances in the tournament so far, I’d probably be avoiding the veteran talisman with better alternatives available.
The dark horse in the market is Ajax’s Sebastien Haller, who has stormed out of the blocks with six goals in just three outings. The former West Ham front man trails Lewndowski by two goals at the time of writing, but faces Borussia Dortmund this evening where he could quite easily bolster his haul with another strong performance in Germany.
Haller is a shade longer than Ronaldo in the betting, priced at 9/1 with bet365, but with Ajax massively impressing in Europe - three games; three wins; eleven goals scored and just one conceded - there could potentially be some value in the Ivorian, though the very-real risk of this just being a purple patch leaves a dwelling note of uncertainty around his potential in the market.
Tuchel’s holders represent the outright value
Looking at the outright market, it is Chelsea who stand out for me at 8/1. The Blues are enjoying a magnificent campaign thus far - top of the Premier League after 10 games and second in their UCL group, behind Juventus, with three wins from four and just one goal conceded.
Thomas Tuchel’s side won the competition last season after beating Manchester City in the final and look in pole position to qualify for the last-16 and beyond this time around.
The Blues’ defensive solidity is what is most impressive; this season they have only shipped four goals in the league and Europe combined. They have the best defensive record in the English top-flight and the joint-best in the Champions League alongside Ajax.
This, ultimately, is what separates the good sides from the best in cup football, and should they continue in this vein of form then it’s difficult to see anyone breaking them down, just as we witnessed last season when they went the distance in Europe for the first time since the 2011-12 campaign.
Of course, the true test will come in the knockout stages, when the west London side will be truly put to the sword against the rest of Europe’s elite after (so far) making relatively light work of a fairly easy group containing both Malmo and Zenit.
Juve are Chelsea’s main opponents in Group H and so far the Italians have the upper-hand after beating the Blues 1-0 in Turin, which places them in top-spot after four games.
Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool are all ahead of Chelsea in the outright betting heading into tonight’s games, where three of those four sides are in action.
And, while it is difficult to look past seasoned-winners Bayern with such an impressive figurehead leading a destructive front-line in Lewandowski, I would back Tuchel’s well-oiled machine to get the better of the other three over two legs.
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Which sides are at risk of falling into the Europa League?
As is the (somewhat unfair) norm, each side who finishes third in their Champions League group will still get a chance to keep their European adventure alive.
This season the format is different, however, and the eight teams who finish third in their UCL group will enter a Europa League play-off, where they will battle it out with each second-placed team from the eight UEL groups in February to determine who makes it into the last-16 of the Europa League.
Club Brugge, Porto, Sporting CP, Inter Milan, Benfica, Atalanta, Wolfsburg and Zenit are the current third-place teams, though this could change dramatically from now until the end of the group stage in December.
Manchester United fell out of the Champions League at this stage last season and went on to reach the final of the Europa League, eventually losing to Villarreal on penalties.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the Europa League winner odds as soon as the teams from the Champions League are confirmed to be in it next month, as more often than not they will be the teams who go on to reach the final and win the tournament.
Which sides look down and out?
There are currently four teams on no points: RB Leipzig, AC Milan, Besiktas and Malmo, while Dynamo Kiev and Shakhtar are both on one.
Each of those teams look set to bow out of the competition in December but for a late turnaround, while Young Boys and Sevilla - who sit bottom of Group’s F and G respectively - are also in danger on three points apiece but could quite easily stake a claim for a third-place finish, or even a late push for qualification in the Champions League, depending on how well they perform in the final two games.
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