Burnley vs Spurs Predictions: Follow King Kane in the shots market

Burnley welcome Tottenham to Turf Moor on Wednesday evening in the Premier League. Our man @AnthonyEadson has dived into the data and provided us with his best bets for the match which both centre around a certain Harry Kane. 

One of the most memorable games of the Premier League season so far was played out on Saturday evening as Spurs completed a double over Manchester City in a 3-2 thriller at the Etihad. That ended a three-game losing run for Antonio Conte’s side and he will hope that fatigue is not a factor as they face a tough test away in the badlands of Burnley on Wednesday.

Sean Dyche will have been over the moon with his team's impressive 3-0 win on the south coast against Brighton on Saturday afternoon. That was just their second win of the season for the Clarets; however, they have taken three points at home in the league in the last 13 months.

When asked about the fitness of his striker Harry Kane in an interview on Tuesday, Tottenham manager Antonio Conte replied:

“Even if he has one leg, he has to play.” 

I think that says a lot about just how important the Italian views the Spurs talisman, and it’s easy to see why after the monumental performance Kane put in against Manchester City at the weekend scoring two goals including the winner.

After a slow start to the season, which was almost to be expected after a long covid-riddled campaign followed by the Euros, Kane has now really started to find his form. I’m backing him to have over 3.5 shots in the game against Burnley which is priced at even money with Unibet. Compare that to the 1/6 on offer from Betfair and Paddy Power and you’ll start to see why I think I’m onto a nice one here. 

In the first five league matches of the season Kane let off just nine shots. Compare that to his last five league matches where he’s taken 24 shots and it’s clear to see the upturn in-form and confidence again. In the last month Kane has recorded 10 shots against Leicester, eight shots against Wolves, and after three against City at the weekend I’m happy to back the over 3.5 against Burnley with Unibet.

I certainly don’t think Spurs will have it all their own way on their visit to East Lancashire and one thing for sure about Wednesday’s match is that it will be cold, wet, windy and Sean Dyche will have his players right up for it!  Conditions that have often played into Burnley’s hands over the last few years which leads me onto my second selection.

I’ve taken a lean towards Harry Kane to score and be carded in the match which is available at 18/1 with Betfair or Paddy Power. As mentioned above Kane has been a joy to watch in recent weeks with six out of his seven goals in the league this season coming in his last nine appearances. Kane also has three goals in two matches in the FA Cup this year and it would be no surprise to see the Spurs penalty and free-kick taker bag another against relegation threatened Burnley. 

Harry Kane may not be the top scorer in the league this season for Spurs with Son Heung-min leading the way on nine, but one metric Kane does rank top for at the club is fouls. The 28-year-old has committed ten more fouls than any other player at Tottenham this season and has collected three yellow cards in 21 appearances. 

I expect Burnley to make it tough for Spurs at Turf Moor with some big tackles going in early on from the likes of James Tarkowski, Ashley Westwood and Josh Brownhill. Kane looks to have some fire in his belly at the moment and I hope he can get on the wrong side of Graham Scott and find his way into the notebook. 

To recap, that’s even money and 18/1 bets for Burnley vs Tottenham. Good luck to anyone following the selections and please always gamble responsibly.