Burnley vs. Man Utd Predictions: Expect a feisty affair at Turf Moor

Tuesday night at 8pm, live on BT Sport, Manchester United take the trip to Turf Moor where they face Burnley for midweek Premier League action.

Currently sitting at rock bottom of the Premier League table with a tough game in their sights, Sean Dyche has some work to do If Burnley are to avoid relegation. They currently have thirteen points from nineteen matches, but a win here could potentially see them leapfrog Newcastle, Watford and Norwich into 17th place if results go their way. This is a huge ask however, with Burnley's last win coming against Brentford back in November. Brownhill is set to return to central midfield for Burnley after a recent suspension. New signing, Wout Weghorst, will start up top again here and look to cause the United centre backs grief with his aerial prowess. 

A disappointing FA Cup exit for Manchester United against Championship side Middlesbrough on Friday, leaves their focus now on securing Champions League football next season. Currently sitting in 4th place, two points ahead of 6th place Arsenal who have a game in hand, three points is essential here to bolster their top four chances. Still only one defeat under Ralph Rangnick, Manchester United are strong favourites here but a stubborn Burnley side who have recently taken a point off Arsenal, West Ham and Chelsea wont make it easy for the Red Devils. Both Pogba and Bruno are likely to keep their places here, with Shaw expected to keep his place due to Telles and Fred returning with Covid-19.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Roberts, Tarkowski, Mee, Taylor; McNeil, Westwood, Brownhill, Cornet; Rodriguez, Weghorst

Manchester United possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Shaw; McTominay, Pogba; Rashford, Fernandes, Elanga; Ronaldo

An angle that I have found myself backing each week is Man Utd tackles. Since Ralph Rangnick took over at Old Trafford, tackles have increased significantly due to his style of play. Since he took charge, Man Utd are averaging 18.1 tackles per match, a huge increase on earlier in the season.

Rangnick has now been in charge for eleven matches as the Manchester United manager, with this bet winning in ten of those eleven. The one match that it came up short in was actually the reverse of this fixture where the Red Devils only managed eight, their lowest count by some distance under Ralphs reign. Of those eleven matches, the second lowest total was thirteen tackles against Villa in the cup, with the next lowest tackle count being sixteen! I feel this 12.5 line is a couple of tackles too low and looks great value at 10/11, a line that is closer to 16.5 with other books.

With Bet365 and their new betbuilder feature implementing higher lines, it gives us the opportunity to play similar angles but at much higher prices.

Man Utd have cleared 14.5 tackles in nine of their last eleven matches, a slightly higher line compared to the main selection. Burnley’s average tackles are not as high as Man Utd’s, but they are consistently hitting around the teens. They have cleared this 13.5 line in all of their last nine Premier League matches, including in the reverse in December where they managed fourteen. Getting 5/1 on this longshot looks huge value, landing nine of eleven for Man Utd and all of Burnley’s last nine.