Brighton vs. Wolves Betting Tips: Ruben Neves in focus for Amex visit
A sore defeat to relegation threatened Nottingham Forest will have European chasing Brighton desperate to bounce back at home against the now seemingly safe Wolves.
After narrowly missing out on a midweek full house in Wednesday's preview for the Seagulls' trip to the City Ground, @LukeHam94 returns for another roll of the dice on Roberto De Zerbi's side.
Having only played 30 league matches during this current campaign, destiny remains in Albion's hands. Results mean they've tumbled down into 8th behind Villa, Liverpool and Spurs, but have as many as three games in hand over these opponents.
A 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace has gifted Julen Lopetegui's men an eight-point safety blanket above the relegation zone and appears to have ensured their Premier League safety. Next season's development plans are likely to be well in place, however, ending the campaign strongly should not be forgotten.
Proceedings for this one dictate Albion as the 1/2 favourites. The draw is priced around the 7/2 mark, while Wolves represent a healthy looking 6/1 shot with multiple betting sites.
Brighton vs Wolves Tips
It doesn't take the most eagle-eyed viewer to notice that Ruben Neves enjoys a speculative punt. That hankering for long-distance efforts, coupled with his individual shot counts this term, have caught our eye for a strong looking bet.
The Portuguese midfielder has had two or more shots on 18 occasions from a possible 30 this season in the Premier League. That alone paints a pretty clear picture and underlines how big the 13/8 looks against its suggestion of 4/6 probability wise.
Whether he's playing with more confidence or his team are fashioning more shot-taking opportunities, Neves is generally attempting more based on last season's success of 2+ in 13/33 or 22 from 36 in the 2020/21 campaign.
More recently, Neves has hit this line in five of his last six, including his two return games after serving a two-match suspension for accumulating 10 yellow cards.
If you needed further convincing, Brighton's Lewis Dunk has made the joint-fifth highest tally of blocked shots, meaning a Neves effort from range could give him two bites at the cherry and see this main bet land in one fell swoop.
With five games remaining, Ruben Neves has already matched his individual shots on target total of 16 for each of the two previous seasons.
The 26-year-old has had three shots on goal in his last two outings post-ban, resulting in success for this particular leg of the bet 13 times out of 30 this term.
He had an effort saved against De Zerbi's men back in November and can be backed at 13/8 with bet365 to test Robert Sanchez at the Amex.
Over on the fouls front, Pablo Sarabia's admission to the Premier League has been relatively consistent. Wolves' January signing has only failed to record a foul in three of his 12 appearances in gold, and two of those saw him feature for less than 60 minutes.
There's a greater expectancy of forward players to contribute defensively in Lopetegui's side and Brighton's dynamic style is likely to require a solid off-the-ball shift from the former PSG man.
Tricky Japanese winger Kaoru Mitoma is known for his mastery dribbling, but the same can't necessarily be said for his tackling. He's committed at least a foul in 11 of his 25 appearances in his debut season for the Seagulls. Better yet, he's seen this bet land in half of his 18 matches since establishing a regular place in Roberto De Zerbi's starting XI.
Having landed in four of his last six where he's given away a total of 10 fouls, along with the current state of play for Brighton after their midweek defeat and FA Cup semi-final loss, Mitoma's tenacity will be required at both ends of the pitch to acquire a result.