Brentford vs. Southampton Predictions: Back Armstrong to rack up the shots

Brentford vs Southampton is one of four 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon and we’ve asked @AnthonyEadson to preview the game in the capital and provide us with his best bets.

These two teams are only separated by goal difference heading into this weekend’s fixture with both on 40 points. Brentford will be a lot happier with their league position than Southampton having all but secured safety with three games remaining, with this season set to go down as a huge success.

Brentford have been in good form in the final quarter of the campaign and prior to Monday night’s defeat at Manchester United, they had won five of their last seven matches. The Bees have kept clean sheets in their last three on home soil and will fancy their chances of scoring a couple here against a Southampton side who have shipped at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 away matches in the Premier League.

Southampton have now thrown away 26 points after being in winning positions this season in the top-flight, with their latest blow coming thanks to a late Wilfried Zaha winner at St Mary’s last weekend.

One player who is pushing for a recall to the Southampton side is Stuart Armstrong and I’m expecting him to feature from the off here against Brentford. It’s his prices in the shots markets that have caught my eye and I’m backing him to have Over 1.5 shots in the match which is being offered at 6/5 with bet365.

Armstrong has only started 13 matches in the Premier League this season but having a look back at his shooting figures he has cleared this line of Over 1.5 in seven of those (54%). Odds of 6/5 imply just a 45% chance of this selection landing, so I do feel we are getting a little bit of value here.

The 30-year-old also recorded two shots against Manchester City in Southampton’s FA Cup quarter-final defeat this season, and he’s a player who can rack up the attempts when he’s in the mood. In four of his 13 league starts this season he has let off four or more shots, hitting a high of seven against Norwich earlier in the campaign. 

Brentford are unbeaten in their last three at home, which includes wins over West Ham and Burnley as well as a point against Spurs. I expect them to take the game to Saints on Saturday and have picked out a 6/4 double involving two of their players. 

The first is Bryan Mbeumo who I think makes much more appeal in the shot markets than fellow striker Ivan Toney. The Frenchman has amassed 9.11xG this season but has only got on the scoresheet four times, showing he has been wasteful on occasions. It’s not for the lack of trying though which can hopefully prove profitable again in this match. 

Bryan Mbeumo averages 2.2 shots per game this season but when looking at just games on home soil, this rises to 2.4 per game. In his last seven matches his shot figures read; 3,3,2,1,7,2,5,3. With this in mind, I’m happy to include him to have Over 1.5 shots in this little bet builder. 

Christian Eriksen has been instrumental for Brentford over the last few months, helping Thomas Frank’s men pick up crucial points at the most important part of the season. The Dane is another who has been shooting for fun lately and I’m backing him to hit the target here.

The former Spurs midfielder has at least two shots and at least one shot on target in all of his last six appearances for Brentford. He most recently hit the target twice against Manchester United on Monday and there’s no reason he can’t fire another between the sticks here. 

Good luck to those following and please gamble responsibly.