Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayern Munich: A 45/1 tip for tonight's showdown in the Bundesliga

If the FA Cup action does not take your fancy there is plenty to go at in Europe this weekend commencing in the Bundesliga where I picked out a 45/1 long-shot for the action in North Rhine-Westphalia as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Bayern Munich. 

The Foals have drawn more games then they have won which is why Marco Rose’s side have slumped to seventh in the Bundesliga proceedings. They will be without Marcus Thuram for this one, who is suspended for spitting, so Breel Embolo is likely to get the nod up-top. 

Their opponents Bayern Munich currently sit at the helm of the table and a win at Borussia Park would see them move five points ahead of RB Leipzig, who play Dortmund on Saturday. The only absentee on note for the visitors is Serge Gnabry who remains a doubt with a shin injury. 

With nothing outstanding for this game price-wise, I have combined some selections using Betfair’s same game multi feature to make a 45/1 longshot. 

With six cards to his name, nobody eligible to play tomorrow has had their name taken more times this season then Florian Neuhaus. The Foals’ central midfielder has picked up three of his cards in his last four domestic starts and with him covering the likes of Coman, Lewandowski and Sane I expect him to add to this tally at Borussia Park. 

With his opposition number, Joshua Kimmich, back to full fitness and set to start in the Barvarians' engine room I also fancy him for a booking. Kimmich has three cards to his name this campaign meaning he has been booked in half of his Bundesliga appearances. 

In the shots department, only Breel Embolo (2.4) has a greater shots per game average for M’Gladbach than Lars Stindl (2.2). Stindl has averaged 2.8 SpG in the Bundesliga games he has started, hitting at least three in all of his last three league games. 

For Bayern, Muller is not their most prolific shooter but with six goals to his name he is one of their more clinical finishers. In terms of SpG, he ranks fourth (1.6) but against the bigger sides he has been looking for the target more often. He did not register a shot against Dortmund but in Bayern’s more recent games against Leverkusen and RBL he has averaged 2.5 SpG with 80% of those bound for the target.

I also want to point you in the direction of Gnabry’s price of 7/1 to be carded with William Hill. Surprisingly, he is Bayern’s most booked player with four cards to his name this season, three of those coming in his last four starts. This is a bet that I successfully tipped at 9/1 for Bayern vs Leverkusen, but with Gnabry an injury doubt I didn’t want to make it the main play. 

If you are backing this selection, please stake responsibly.