Borussia Dortmund vs. Rangers Predictions: Two stats based bets for Europa League clash

The Europa League knockout stages kick-off on Thursday night, an Rangers have been handed a very tough draw against Borussia Dortmund. Rangers have lost just 2 games under Van Bronckhorst, but the last defeat was humbling one to arch-rivals Celtic and it crucially saw them give up top spot in the SPL. They currently sit 1 point behind the leaders domestically, but now their focus will shift to causing an upset in Europe.

Dortmund finished level on points with Sporting in their Champions League group, but they were eliminated due to their 3-1 defeat on their travels to Lisbon. Dortmund finished 9 points off the pace of the group winners Ajax, and they will need put that disappointment behind them if they are to win the Europa League this season, with Barcelona and Sevilla dropping out of the Champions League to add to the already stern competition for the trophy.

It is also difficult to envisage Dortmund closing the 6 point gap on Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga with 12 games remaining. Bayern’s recent defeat to Bochum gave them a glimmer of hope, but the Europa League represents a great chance for Dortmund to pick up silverware this season, so I expect them to take this text very seriously.

As previously stated, this competition represents a good opportunity for Dortmund to pick up some silverware, and success in Europe would not go a miss for the German giants. I think they will name a very strong team and look to impose themselves on Rangers from the off and they should have sufficient quality to win the game.

Dortmund have had more corners than their opponents in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions and they will be looking to play on the front foot here to put the tie to bed as quickly as possible. Over that 10 game period, Dortmund average over 7 corners per game and their opponents average just over 3. In the last 5 matches where Dortmund have been priced similarly for the win, they average just over 7 corners per game and their opponents average exactly 2, much alike their averages over the last 10 matches overall. Rangers average 4.8 corners in their last 5 similar matches, while their opponents average 8.4. So Dortmund to have the most corners seems like a good angle here.

In their 6 Champions League group games, Dortmund averaged exactly 2 cards per game and their opponents averaged over 3. Rangers average just over 2 cards per game in their Europa League matches so far this seas, and their opponents averaged just over 1. Rangers will expect to be under pressure for large periods of this game, so I think it’s fair to assume their players will have more opportunities to commit cynical fouls that will result in cards.

This bet is very similar to our main bet in the sense that we require Dortmund corners and Rangers cards. This relies on Dortmund applying the pressure from the get go and I see no reason why the Germans won’t do just that. 

I’d say the most difficult aspect of this bet is Rangers receiving a card in the first half, but the Scottish side did receive a yellow in 5 of their 6 group games in the competition.