Blackburn vs. Derby Predictions: Back under 1.5 goals at Ewood Park

Blackburn Rovers take on Derby County on Tuesday evening in the Championship at Ewood Park. The game can be seen live via the Sky Sports red button kicking off at 19:45, and our man @AnthonyEadson has previewed the game and provided us with his best bets for the action.

Both of these sides will be looking to bounce back after defeats at the weekend, with Blackburn having suffered a 1-0 loss at home to Bristol City. That makes it just three wins this calendar year for Rovers, with Tony Mowbray’s men worryingly having scored only one goal in their last nine matches!

Despite that shocking stat, Rovers still remain fifth in the table, although there are just eight points between themselves and West Brom in 14th. Blackburn have won their last three Championship matches against Derby and will be hoping this game can be a catalyst for an upturn in form with a much-needed three points.

If Derby County had not been hit with a 21-point deduction this season they would be 16th in the Championship table. Unfortunately for The Rams, that is not the case and they are currently down in 23rd spot, five points from safety. 

Wayne Rooney has done a good job at Derby this season in some really tricky circumstances, although they have taken just three points from their last 15 available. Their latest result came in the form of a 2-0 defeat away to promotion-chasing Bournemouth, making it four losses in their last five. 

The first selection I’ve opted for in this Championship clash is for there to be under 1.5 goals scored in the match, which is available at 2/1 with SBK. It’s no secret just how much the goals have dried up for Blackburn over the last couple of months. Since the turn of the year Rovers have played 13 matches and scored just three goals!

Without Ben Brereton Diaz, Blackburn have looked a shadow of the team we saw during the autumn and he remains sidelined here due to injury. Much to the disappointment of Sky bet, Diaz currently sits on 20 league goals for the season, which is 43.4% of Blackburn’s total goals scored in 2021/2022. 

Five of Blackburn’s last six matches have featured under 1.5 goals with the only exception being their 2-0 away defeat at league leaders Fulham. Derby have also found goals hard to come by in recent weeks, failing to score in three of their last four when falling to defeats against Luton, Bournemouth and Cardiff. 

Blackburn are in desperate need of a change in fortunes and one player who’s not afraid to put his body on the line is on-loan defender Jan Paul van Hecke. The 21-year-old has been a revelation for Rovers this season, putting in some classy performances as part of a back-three witn Darragh Lenihan and Scott Wharton. No team in the league has kept more clean sheets than Blackburn, who have 15 along with Huddersfield and Luton, but I’ll be backing the Dutchman to pick up a card in this match which is available at 7/2 with Betfair. 

In 23 appearances this season, van Hecke has been shown eight yellows and one red card. A committed tackler who is averaging over a foul a game (1.1), van Hecke’s disciplinary record looks even better for card-backers when looking at just his home fixtures this season. In the 12 appearances he has made at Ewood Park this season, he has been shown five yellows and one red card.

With this in mind and the importance of Tuesday’s match for Blackburn, I like the look of van Hecke being carded at 7/2 with Betfair. Best of luck to anyone following the selections on Tuesday. 

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