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Belgium v Italy Tips: Azzurri to rack up the shots in Euros QF

Belgium v Italy Tips: Mancini's men haven't conceded since last October.
Belgium v Italy Tips: Mancini's men haven't conceded since last October.

Friday night sees two international giants collide in our second Euro 2021 Quarter final. Belgium face Italy at the Allianz arena live on BBC One.

Belgium booked their place in this quarter final thanks to a fine strike from Thorgen Hazard which saw them overcome Portugal, making it four wins from four this campaign. One cause for concern for Roberto Martinez’ side is the fitness of star man Kevin De Bruyne - he was forced off after just 47 minutes vs Portugal with an ankle injury and faces late fitness tests ahead of this game.

Italy also go into this clash in good spirits despite having to go through extra time to overcome a stubborn Austria side in the round of 16. That game now means the Italians haven’t tasted defeat in 31 games which is an astonishing achievement for Mancini’s men. The Azzurri do edge the head to head between the two sides but both teams have come a long way since their last meeting in 2016, which saw Italy come out on top 2-0.

Belgium v Italy Tips

Today's football tips

Belgium v Italy Odds

BTTS - No
23/10
Odds correct as of 2021-07-02 09:30 Odds subject to change.

A market often left untouched as we all love seeing the goals fly in but with the unders priced so short here, I feel there is value in backing against both teams to find the net.

Another clean sheet for Italy in 90 minutes vs Austria means they haven’t conceded a goal since October last year, a run stretching back 13 games. Belgium could be without Hazard and De Bruyne here so this run has very chance of going a game further.

As for the Belgians, this bet would’ve landed in all but one of their games so far this campaign. They seem to be getting the job done without being overly impressive and with this being a quarter-final at a major tournament, we could be in for a cagey low-scoring game.

Belgium v Italy Odds
Italy 16+ shots
5/2
Odds correct as of 2021-07-02 09:35 Odds subject to change.

Albeit against worse opposition, Italy have hit this line in 3 of their 4 Euro games so far. They are averaging 21.8 shots per game this campaign and I fancy them to at least go close once again.

Belgium are only conceding 14 shots per game across their 4 games so far, but this is skewed by low shot counts from Russia and Finland. Across the two games vs Portugal and Denmark, they have faced a staggering 46 shots; Denmark hitting 22 and Portugal 24.

Game state will be dependant of course but the numbers show Belgium are capable of suffering large spells of dominance. With the Italians clearly not afraid to pull the trigger I think this 5/2 shot should give us a decent run for our money Friday evening.

Italy to win and Donnarumma to be booked
30/1
Odds correct as of 2021-07-02 09:35 Odds subject to change.

With everything considered and the injuries heading into this one, I do think Italy will have enough to get through Belgium. Once ahead there is no one better to see the game out than Mancinis men. A side full of experience and know-how aren’t unfamiliar with the ugly side of the game.

AC Milan Goalkeeper AC Milan Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has a decent card record for a goalkeeper and if the opportunity arises I think he’d happily take another to help his team. Very self explanatory, but goal kicks give the goalkeeper many opportunities to waste time and if the game state can sway in our favour this longshot could get interesting for some added interest Friday night.

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