Aston Villa vs. West Ham Betting Tips: Back Gerrard's men to rack up over nine fouls on Sunday

Aston Villa welcome West Ham to the Midlands on Sunday afternoon and our man @AnthonyEadson is on hand to preview the game and provide us with his best bets for the action. 

Steven Gerrard’s side have lost two of their opening three games in the Premier League and after naming a strong XI to see off Bolton in the Carabao Cup in midweek, they will be looking to take at least a point against a West Ham team that are yet to get going this term. 

The Hammers currently occupy 20th spot in the table at this early stage, after three straight losses against Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Brighton. West Ham are yet to score a goal domestically this season and although they have put six goals past Viborg in the Europa Conference League over the last two weeks, they will be desperate to get their campaign up and running here with their following three fixtures being Chelsea, Tottenham and Newcastle. 

Moving on to team news, Diego Carlos is the only confirmed absentee for the hosts, while Emi Buendia is expected to continue in attack. Ollie Watkins may also get his chance from the off at the expense of Leon Bailey.  Summer signing Nayef Aguerd is still a few weeks away from returning from injury for West Ham. Craig Dawson and Valdimir Coufal will both be assessed on the day and are both a doubt. 

Aston Villa come into this game priced as the 13/10 favourites to take all three points. The draw can be backed at 12/5, with the away side being offered at 21/10 to grab their first win of the 2021/2022 season. 

My main play for this game comes courtesy of Unibet who have priced Aston Villa to concede over 9.5 fouls at a generous looking 4/5. It may not seem like the most glamorous of prices but I think it’s one that holds some value.

Last season, no team in the Premier League conceded more fouls than Aston Villa who racked up 501 in total at an average of 13.1 per game. Across the three rounds of fixtures so far in the 2022/2023 season, Villa have committed more fouls than any other side at an average of 13.6 per game.

This selection of Villa to concede Over 9.5 fouls has landed in 10 of their last 11 top-flight matches, with the only exception in that run being that home game to Everton a fortnight ago, when they came up one short with nine. 

Another of the main reasons behind my confidence in this selection is that the referee for the game will be David Coote. Of the 22 officials to take control of top-flight matches last season, Coote ranked 1st for the most fouls, averaging 23.85 per game across his 20 appearances. 

David Coote also ranked highly in 2021/2022 when it came to giving out yellow cards, ranking 1st of those who had taken the whistle for 10+ matches, with an average of 4.6 cautions per game. 

Declan Rice is the player who I’ll be hoping can find his way into Coote’s notebook on Sunday, with 4/1 on show with bet365 for him to do so. No West Ham player was shown more yellow cards last season than the talented midfielder, with eight in the Premier League and another three in Europe. I think West Ham will struggle on Sunday and at 4/1 Rice makes plenty of appeal to pick up a booking. 

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