Aston Villa vs Ajax Prediction and Betting Tips: Inexperienced Iroegbunam to be carded
Posted: 12:39 Wednesday 13th March 2024
Two European Cup winners collide once again this Thursday, but one of Aston Villa or Ajax must fall at Villa Park as only a single place is available in the Europa Conference League quarter-finals for either Unai Emery's side or John van 't Schip's men.
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Last Thursday's first leg was a somewhat tepid affair, with both sides nullifying one another in a game which only produced a total of eight shots - two of which were on target.
Since then, an injury-riddled Villa fluffed their lines in a big way in Sunday's Champions League shootout with Tottenham, while Ajax extended their current unbeaten run to seven with a 2-2 home draw vs Fortuna Sittard.
Predicted XIs
Aston Villa (4-4-2) Martinez; Cash, Carlos, Torres, Moreno; McGinn, Luiz, Iroegbunam, Tielemans; Diaby, Watkins
Ajax (3-4-3) Ramaj; Sutalo, Kaplan, Hato; Rensch, Mannsverk, Henderson, Sosa; Hlynsson, Taylor, Brobbey
Aston Villa vs Ajax Tips
Tim Iroegbunam To Be Carded
This first bet might be a short price for a card, but allow us to explain why it's still worth the outlay. Bookmakers are taking no chances with 20-year-old Tim Iroegbunam potentially starting Villa's crucial second leg on Thursday night as injuries to key players have forced Unai Emery to lean on some of his reserves.
One of those is the Albion and Villa academy product, who has a big midfield battle ahead of him against Jordan Henderson and Sivert Mannsverk. AVFC will be a lot more involved in this portion of the tie than they were in Amsterdam, with the expectation being that they'll control proceedings in B6 as Ajax did last week on their own turf.
Three midfielders were booked in the first leg by a relatively card happy ref who was intent on letting his authority be known by both teams, and Iroegbunam could well have added his name to that list on a different day for the foul he committed during an Ajax break.
The Great Barr-born youngster has set out his stall in this capacity despite limited action, giving away four fouls in 56 Premier League minutes this term - three of which have come inside 32 mins against Tottenham and Luton in Villa's two most recent outings.
For a larger sample to go off, during his loan at QPR last season, Tim was carded seven times in 32 Championship appearances. The season before his progression into senior football also saw him pick up six yellows in just 15 Premier League 2 matches, making it plainly obvious why the bookies have him positioned as the market's second favourite to be booked.
Add to this the impression that Villa will be a lot more involved than they were in the first leg, then turnovers should be quite high between the two on Thursday. If Iroegbunam finds himself playing further up the field than last week, then his inexperience could see him leave nothing to chance when it comes stopping Ajax attacks.
Youri Tielemans Anytime Assist
Youri Tielemans has so far well exceeded his stats in this department since joining Villa, providing four assists in the Premier League against an xAG of just 1.8; adding another in this competition to round his total to five.
Only Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey have outperformed him in this area for Villa, which given the seasons they're both having, speaks volumes for Tielemans' output. The price also suggests his contribution is somewhat going under the radar, at least in bet365's eyes, with Sky Bet opting to go 15/8 for the same selection.
The midfielder's passing accuracy is higher than the two names above him in the charts and at least competes with the likes of John McGinn, Moussa Diaby, Douglas Luiz and Lucas Digne, who are all on five assists for the season also. Having contributed 48 total shot-creating actions and 11 goal-creating actions across the PL and UECL, 7/2 is a very solid price for a player who loves to operate in and around the opposition penalty box.
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