Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur Predictions: Expect chances for Spurs in their quest for the top four

Aston Villa host Tottenham in the late kick-off on Saturday in the Premier League. We've enlisted the help of our EV bettor @scottythorn21 to cover this crucial game for Spurs.

Conte’s side come into the game on the back of an impressive 5-1 win over Newcastle. The Magpies took the lead before the home side seized control and dominated proceedings. Spurs will be hoping to carry that attacking threat into this game against a potentially dangerous Villa side.

Since Steven Gerrard was appointed Aston Villa manager, they have struggled for consistency and they find themselves marooned in the middle of the table. There is no hope of the team qualifying for European football as the season approaches its end, but Gerrard will be keen to see his team finish the season strongly to lay a good foundation for the next campaign.

Spurs were at their attacking best in the second half against Newcastle and Conte’s men managed 19 shots on their way to a comfortable victory; well above their average of 13.6 shots per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

A large amount of shots will inevitably lead to goal kicks for Spurs’ opponents. Newcastle had 11 goal kicks in Spurs last game, but Spurs opponents are averaging 6.8 goal kicks  per game in their last 10 matches overall. Villa themselves are averaging 8 goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches. When these sides met earlier this season, Villa took 7 goal kicks; both teams are much improved since then, but Tottenham in particular have shown massive improvement in the attacking department.

Spurs haven’t failed to score in any of their last 8 meetings with Villa dating back to November 2015. Conte’s men have also scored in 9 of their last 10 league matches and have score 3.9 goals per game on average over that period.

All things considered, I’m happy to back Spurs to find the net and force 7 goal kicks from their opponents.

As previously mentioned,  Spurs are averaging just under 4 goals per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions. Villa have been fairly solid defensively over the same period, conceding an average of just 1 goal per game.

I’m sticking with the goal kicks for the long-shot but changing it up slightly by going with overall match goal kicks. Villa themselves have a lot of players who like to let fly, and this should result in a fair amount of goal kicks in the match.

The meeting between the sides earlier in the season saw 17 goal kicks in the match. Villa’s last 10 matches are averaging 15.3 goal kicks per game, well above the required mark for this bet. Spurs’ last 10 matches are seeing an average of 13.2 goal kicks per game, marginally under the required mark. I’m still happy to back this given the meeting earlier in the season and Villa’s recent numbers.

Year To Date P/L: +9.8u.