Aston Villa vs. Everton Betting Tips: Two data-driven plays for the early kick-off at Villa Park

Aston Villa take on Everton in the early kick-off on Saturday, and it should be an entertaining clash between two clubs who expect more than they achieved last season. Pressure could mount on either of the managers fairly quickly. As players, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard’s quality was unquestionable, but the jury is still out on their managerial ability.

Villa have been ambitious in the transfer market, and their record under Gerrard will need to improve drastically to get close to achieving their lofty ambitions. They have won just 10 of their 28 games under the former Liverpool midfielder.

Both of these teams suffered defeat in their respective opening fixtures, and many believe that both of these managers could be among the first on the chopping block if results don’t improve in the early phases of this season.

In their first match, Villa put significant pressure on Bournemouth as they succumbed to a 2-0 defeat. They manage to force 12 goal kicks in that match, and they have several players who are keen to shoot from distance. The home support will encourage their team to attack, and Everton’s back five should limit space for Villa to play in behind, forcing them into having the occasional speculative effort that can easily result in a goal kick.

The meetings between these sides last season saw 18 and 24 goal kicks. In fact, there has been at least 18 goal kicks in the last 5 head-to-head’s. Villa’s last 10 home matches in the league are also averaging over 15 goal kicks per game, so the stats make for good reading for this bet.

Everton tackles also look to be a good bet in this one. They had 24 and 22 tackles when the sides met last season, and Frank Lampard’s men made 24 tackles in their opening game with Chelsea. Everton are averaging 17.77 tackles per game in Lampard’s tenure so far, and I expect to hit a slightly larger number here against a Villa side that features a number of players who enjoy dribbling the ball.

Using the Bet 365 bet builder, we can get odds of 2.10 for over 13.5 goal kicks in the match, and over 16.5 tackles for Everton. Both of these angles look good in terms of statistics, and I’m expecting an entertaining clash on Saturday morning.

For the longer odds bet, I’ll be taking the same angles as our main bet at higher lines. The recent meetings between these sides have shown that there is plenty of scope for the goal kick and tackle lines to be smashed here. This bet also landed in both meetings last season, so I’m surprised to see it as long as 8/1 here. 

Both teams will be keen to get their first points on the board and it should mean we see an end-to-end game. There is significant pressure on both teams despite it being early in the season, and I expect this to lead to player flying into the tackles.

If Everton take the lead in the first half, Villa should force a lot of goal kicks as they did in their first game of the season.