Arsenal vs. Wolves Predictions: Two data driven bets including a 11/1 shot

Arsenal host Wolves as they look to gain ground in the race for the top 4. Arsenal have emerged as favourites for Champions League qualification, after a good run of form has seen them climb the table. If Arteta’s side win their games in hand they will overtake Manchester United and open up a five point gap between the teams.

Wolves have been on a good run of their own, and they still have an outside chance of making the top 4 this season. While everyone has been talking about the likes of Arsenal and Man United, Bruno Lage’s men have been quietly going about their business. Wolves are currently two points behind Arsenal, and a win here would be a huge lift in their quest to finish in the top 4. Both of these sides will be in buoyant mood after Burnley beat Antonio Conte’s side 1-0, succumbing to their 4th defeat in five games and ensuring these teams come into the game in 6th and 7th place respectively.

Arsenal won the reverse fixture 1-0, which was only a couple of weeks ago, thanks to Covid wreaking havoc through the festive period. Arsenal were reduced to 10 men in that game where they valiantly held on to secure all three points, and they will be hoping for a similar outcome here.

Arteta has a full squad to choose from, with no injuries in the camp to help them continue their good run. Wolves are also doing well on the fitness front, with Boly the only notable absentee.

Arsenal are averaging seven goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions and Wolves’ opponents are averaging just over five goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches. In their last five matches where they’ve been priced similarly to win the match, Arsenal are averaging over five goal kicks per game. Wolves opponents in their last five matches at similar odds are also averaging over five goal kicks per game.

The reverse fixture between these teams saw Arsenal take 10 goal kicks, this was aided by the red card in the match, but the required line for this bet was comfortably cleared and Wolves will be looking to impose themselves in phases here.

Wolves tackle numbers in their last 10 matches are also very high, with the team averaging over 17 tackles per game in that period. Arsenal opponents are averaging over 15 tackles per game, so both of these stats lead me to believe they should cover the line here.

In their last five matches at similar odds to win, Arsenal opponents average just under 17 tackles per game. Wolves are averaging over 15 tackles per game in their last five similar matches.

I’m taking the tackles angle in the longer odds bet for the reason previously discussed; Wolves should be right up for this and the numbers suggest they could clear the 16 mark here.

The total goal kicks comes down to the importance of the game to both teams. I’m hoping they avoid a cagey start and both teams are attacking for the win from the off.

Emile Smith-Rowe scored in Arsenal’s last game before he was withdrawn 15 minutes from the end. The youngster has done well in recent weeks and I’m backing him to continue his good form here today.