Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction and Betting Tips: Two data-driven picks from The Emirates

The early kick-off in the Premier League sees Crystal Palace travel to Arsenal and Scott Thornton is on hand with his best bets. 

Arsenal must return to winning ways as they take on Crystal Palace this weekend if they want to stay in touch with Liverpool at the top of the Premier League. The Gunners are burdened with expectations this season after last season’s title challenge.

Mikel Arteta’s side were sitting pretty at the top of the table on Christmas day following their draw at Anfield. Since then they have lost their two league matches and dropped to 4th in the league. They are currently five points behind Liverpool and three behind both Manchester City and Aston Villa.

Crystal Palace have endured a tough time in recent months. Roy Hodgson’s second stint at the club could be in its final weeks if things don’t improve drastically. The bad news for the Eagles is that they have a torrid record against Arsenal; picking up just one win in the last nine head-to-heads.

Arsenal could be without Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko who both face late fitness tests. Thomas Partey and Fabio Vieira remain sidelined through injury.

Crystal Palace also have a few injury concerns. Michale Olise remains unavailable along with Joel Ward, Cheick Doucoure and former Arsenal man, Rob Holding. Jordan Ayew will also miss the match due to him competing in the African Cup of Nations.

The first angle in our main bet builder is Arsenal to win the match. Arteta’s men set a relentless pace in the first half of last season but it wasn’t enough for them to win the title. They led the way at the halfway mark this time around but have fallen behind in recent weeks. Arteta knows his team need to regain their best form quickly if they are to compete with Manchester City and Liverpool. I’m backing them to do just that against Palace.

Roy Hodgson’s side’s only win in their last eleven matches came at home to Brentford. During that run, they are averaging just 1.09 goals per game and they are facing an Arsenal side that are deadly at home. 

The Gunners are averaging 2.2 goals per league game at the Emirates. The recent loss at home to West Ham was just their third league defeat in front of their own fans since the start of last season. Expect Arsenal to pile on the pressure here as they look to put that defeat behind them.

Significant Arsenal pressure should lead to plenty of goal kicks for Crystal Palace. Roy Hodgson’s side had 11 in this fixture last season. The Eagles had eight when they took on Manchester City, one of Arsenal’s title rivals, at the Etihad earlier this season.

Arsenal are forcing an average of nine goal kicks per game at the Emirates this season. They are due a convincing display and will have the lion’s share of possession as they attempt to put Palace to the sword.

Our longer odds bet requires Arsenal to win the match by at least two goals and to force nine goal kicks. Both of these bets won when these sides went toe-to-toe at this ground last season.

We are also adding under 23.5 free kicks in the match. There were 22 free kicks in this fixture last season. Arsenal’s home matches this season are averaging 19.1 fouls per game with just three offsides.