AC Milan vs. Inter Milan Betting Tips: Back Brozovic to be carded in Champions League semi-final

A Derby della Madonnina, in the semi-final stage of the Champions League. We are in for a treat! James Cantrill is here to provide us with his best bets including a 16/1 longshot.

The last time these sides met at this stage of Europe’s premier competition was 2005. The Rossoneri progressed, unsurprisingly when you consider this was their starting XI; Dida, Paolo Maldini, Cafu, Jaap Stam, Alessandro Nesta, Andrea Pirlo, Kaka, Clarence Seedorf, Gennaro Gattuso, Andriy Shevchenko and Hernan Crespo.

The game was stopped for 25 minutes after Dida got hit by a flare, Marco Materazzi and Rui Costa combined for that iconic picture. 

Neither Milan or Inter has reached the Champions League semi-final since they won the competition in 2007 and 2010 respectively.

• AC Milan vs Inter Milan Bet Builder Tips

This will be the fourth meeting between these sides this season. They have each won a Serie A match, Inter thumped them 3-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana.

In terms of team news, Milan are sweating on the fitness of Rafael Leao, their mercurial winger was forced off after 11 minutes in Milan's 2-0 win over Lazio at the weekend. Alexis Saelemaekers, is the most likely candidate to start in his place.

• Champions League Winner Odds

As for Inter, they have three absentees. Milan Skriniar, Dalbert and Robin Gosens are all unavailable, the latter has the biggest chance of playing the second leg. 

Lautaro Martinez, Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan all started on the bench at the weekend. Dzeko faces competition from a revitalised Romelu Lukaku upfront though, both players competing to partner Lautaro Martinez. 

I was contemplating what to pick for way too long. Lukaku’s form is interesting, but would it be enough to see him start over Dzeko? 

Siding with a lack of goals in the form of both teams to score ‘no’ also looked interesting at a shade under evens, apart from the occasion, and the derby element, there was not much of a case to make though. 

Then I realised I was overthinking it. The three meetings between these sides this campaign have seen 19 yellow cards flashed. 

It is the Derby della Madonnina, on Europe’s biggest stage, with the sides gunning for their first UCL trophy in over a decade. 

There will be plenty of cards, surely. Jesus Gil Manzano has the whistle, a card-happy Spaniard, only strengthening this claim. 

He has dished out 119 yellows and seven red cards in 25 appearances this campaign, averaging 5.20 in this competition. 

Marcelo Brozovic is as good a shout as any. He has notched up 12 cards for club and country this season, eight of which coming domestically, despite only starting 16 games.

At first glance, 16/1 for three players to be booked does look short. Context is important, and that combined with the man in the middle is enough for me. Not to mention the 32 cards these three players have between them. 

I am combining Brozovic with Theo Hernandez and Rade Krunic here. The pressure will be on Milan here as this is their ‘home’ leg and I think this bodes well for cards. 

Hernandez has nine to his name this season, two of which coming in four knockout Champions League appearances. Krunic is his side's most booked player. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.