World Cup Winner Odds: England's potential path to the final

The thought of mulled wine being thrown around a beer garden as Harry Kane converts a penalty to seal a 1-0 victory against Iran may be a strange one, but we are now less than six weeks away from the first ever World Cup to be held in the winter. It’s also a first with Qatar hosting the tournament, and as part of our preparation here at BettingOdds.com we’ve decided to take a look at England's potential path to the final, along with the latest Winner Odds.

Group Stage

After a semi-final and final appearance in the last two major tournaments, the nation will once again put its hopes in Gareth Southgate’s side to bring football home. The Three Lions have been drawn in Group B which pits them against Iran, USA, and a battle of Britain against Wales. England have never faced Iran before in a competitive International and it’s hard not to see them taking three points in their opener on Monday 21 November. The bookmakers have England priced at just 1/3 to finish top of Group B, an implied probability of just under 67%.

Round of 16

So if the Three Lions finish top of Group B, and by all means we think they should, they would then qualify for the round of 16 where they would play in the Al Bayt Stadium. This would put England against the runners-up of Group A which contains, the hosts Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal and the Netherlands. Should England finish as runners-up in Group B, they would then face the winners of Group A, with a tough game against the Netherlands the likely outcome. 

Quarter-Final

Providing they top their group and then see off the runner up in Group A (Senegal or Ecuador most likely), England would then reach the quarter-finals stage, where things could start to become a little tricky. Should reigning World Champions France top their group and then go on to beat the runner up from Group C (Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Poland), they would then face England in what would be a tasty looking quarter-final clash, again at the Al Bayt Stadium. 

Should England finish in second spot in Group B, they would then be placed on the other side of the draw. This would most likely set up a quarter-final clash against either Argentina or Denmark at the Lusail Stadium. 

Semi-Final

Now we are getting serious, semi-finals time. Continuing under the main hypothesis that England will top their group and go on to navigate their way through to the last four, they would then most likely face the winners of Group F or H, Belgium or Portugal. 

On the other hand, should Southgate’s side finish second in their group, they would then potentially be up against Brazil, Spain or Germany. There’s no denying that finishing second in their group would put England on the potentially more tricky side of the draw.

The Final

A World Cup final just seven days before Christmas is what football fans have on the menu this festive season, and should England reach this point, one can only pray that we right the wrongs of Euro 2020 and those painful memories against Italy. By topping the Group, England would most likely face Spain, Brazil or the old enemy Germany in the final. Finish runners up, and a showdown against France, Portugal or Belgium is on the cards. 

Latest Prices

Brazil remain the only nation to have qualified for every World Cup tournament and just as they did in 2018 when priced at 9/2, they head into the tournament as favourites, this time round just a little shorter at 4/1. 

France come next in the market, with a general 6/1 on show from most of the big bookmakers in the UK. Les Blues’ squad is stacked with talent such as Kylian Mbappe, although there are questions over the squad harmony here in what will be Didier Deschamps final major tournament.

After a horrid run of form and a relegation in the Nations League, England have been pushed out to 7/1 in the market. There is sure to be plenty of patriotic punters in the forthcoming weeks who think ‘football is coming home’, although this is not a price we would be rushing to back and could well drift slightly before the start of the tournament. 

By the time the World Cup kicks-off it will have been almost three and a half years since Argentina last lost a match. That defeat was all the way back in 2019 to Brazil and since then they have beaten their South American rivals twice as well as playing out a goalless draw. At 13/2 Argentina have shortened in price since the start of the year and it’s easy to see why when looking at their form.

Rounding off those at the head of the betting are Spain at 8/1, Germany 10/1, while Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal can all be found at 14/1.